NYSE$STZ

Constellation Brands Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Delivered strong Q3 performance and increased EPS and cash flow guidance.

Constellation Brands delivered a strong Q3 performance, powered largely by its beer business. The company is increasing its EPS and cash flow guidance for the year. The Wine & Spirits transformation strategy is gaining traction.

  • Generated reported basis EPS of $1.85 and comparable basis EPS of $2.14, including Canopy Growth equity losses of $0.25; excluding Canopy Growth equity losses, achieved comparable basis EPS of $2.39.
  • Generated $2.1 billion of operating cash flow and $1.5 billion of free cash flow, an increase of 5% and 14%, respectively.
  • Increased fiscal 2020 reported basis EPS outlook to $0.95 - $1.05; increased comparable basis EPS outlook to $9.45 - $9.55.
  • Increased fiscal 2020 operating cash flow target to approximately $2.3 billion and free cash flow projection to $1.5 - $1.6 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2B

Previous: $1.97B+1.3%
EPS (adj)

$2.14

Previous: $2.37-9.7%
Wine and Spirits Shipments

12.8M

No prior period
Beer Shipments

72.6M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$183M

Previous: -$250M+26.7%
Net Income

$367M

Previous: $303M+20.9%
Operating Income

$267M

Previous: $557M-52.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Constellation Brands · Revenue · Quarterly

$2B

Q3 2020+1.3%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Constellation Brands · $2.43B total across 2 segments · Q1 2027

  • Beer
    $2.28B
  • Wine and Spirits
    $149M

Forward guidance

Management provided EPS expectations for fiscal year 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Beer: net sales growth of 7 - 8% and operating income growth of 8 - 9%
  • Wine and Spirits: net sales and operating income decline of 8 - 10%
  • Interest expense: approximately $430 million
  • Tax rate: reported 97% to 99%, reflecting fiscal 2020 year to date Canopy fair value tax benefit, comparable excluding Canopy equity earnings impact approximately 18%
  • Weighted average diluted shares outstanding: approximately 195 million; assumes no additional share repurchases for fiscal 2020

Headwinds

  • Operating cash flow: $2.2 - $2.4 billion
  • Capital expenditures: $700 - $800 million, including approximately $560 million targeted for Mexico beer operations expansion activities
  • Free cash flow: $1.5 - $1.6 billion
  • The reported basis EPS guidance includes the fiscal 2020 year to date Canopy equity earnings and related activities impact.
  • Guidance does not reflect future changes in the fair value of the company’s investments in Canopy’s warrants and convertible debt securities.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.0%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

36 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q3 2014

Best reaction

-16.8%

Q3 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027
Q4 2026-0.1%+9.5%-1.6%
Q3 2026+2.5%+5.7%+11.1%
Q2 2026+1.1%+1.9%-7.8%
Q1 2026+1.3%+1.2%+1.3%
Q4 2025+0.7%+0.3%+3.6%
Q3 2025-16.8%-14.9%-22.7%
Q2 2025-0.8%-4.3%-9.8%
Q1 2025-2.3%+1.1%-4.3%
Q4 2024+2.0%-1.7%-0.4%
Q3 2024+2.5%+5.0%+3.8%
Q2 2024-2.8%-5.3%-2.7%
Q1 2024-0.3%+0.3%+10.4%
Q4 2023+2.9%+2.9%+2.4%
Q3 2023-8.3%-5.3%+1.4%
Q2 2023-2.1%-6.8%+3.1%
Q1 2023-5.1%-4.1%+0.3%
Q4 2022+5.3%+7.5%+7.4%
Q3 2022-3.9%-3.0%-6.8%
Q2 2022-0.7%+3.1%+3.0%
Q1 2022+2.0%+0.9%-2.1%
Q4 2021-5.1%-4.2%+2.0%
Q3 2021+5.5%+4.6%+5.1%
Q2 2021-1.6%-2.1%-11.9%
Q1 2021+6.7%+6.7%+3.8%
Q4 2020-3.4%+9.3%+18.0%
Q3 2020-0.1%-1.1%+4.9%
Q2 2020-6.3%-8.4%-7.6%
Q1 2020+4.2%+6.2%+8.3%
Q4 2019+7.6%+6.2%+17.6%
Q3 2019-7.2%-6.7%+1.7%
Q2 2019+5.9%+7.4%-4.5%
Q1 2019-7.1%-7.5%-7.9%
Q4 2018+3.5%+2.1%+6.2%
Q3 2018-4.0%-2.8%-4.4%
Q2 2018+4.4%+3.4%+7.3%
Q1 2018+5.5%+4.4%+5.9%
Q4 2017+5.6%+5.5%+10.6%
Q3 2017-5.4%-5.5%-5.6%
Q2 2017+3.1%+3.2%-3.8%
Q1 2017+2.6%+4.1%+3.3%
Q4 2016+4.0%
Q3 2016+2.7%
Q2 2016+4.1%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2015+2.1%
Q3 2015+4.2%
Q2 2015+1.9%
Q1 2015+3.1%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014+10.8%
Q2 2014+6.4%
Q1 2014-5.1%
Q4 2013+1.6%
Q3 2013-1.1%
Q2 2013+1.2%
Q1 2013-0.4%
Q4 2012-0.3%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012-2.7%
Q1 2012-3.4%
Q4 2011+0.8%
Q3 2010-1.3%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q1 2010+1.8%
Q4 2009+0.4%

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