NYSE$TOL
Toll Brothers Inc · Q4 2023 earnings
Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Reported record results driven by strong performance in home sales revenues and adjusted gross margin.
Toll Brothers reported strong Q4 results with home sales revenues of $2.95 billion and earnings per share of $4.11. The company saw a significant increase in net signed contract value, while backlog value decreased. Adjusted gross margin and SG&A margin both beat guidance.
- Net income was $445.5 million, with earnings per share at $4.11 diluted.
- Home sales revenues reached $2.95 billion with 2,755 homes delivered.
- Net signed contract value increased to $2.01 billion, with 2,038 contracts signed.
- Backlog value stood at $6.95 billion at the end of the quarter.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly
$3.02B
Revenue by segment
Toll Brothers · $2.95B total across 5 segments · Q4 2023
- Mountain$780M-19.7%26.4%
- Pacific$710M-29.6%24.1%
- South$660M+10.5%22.4%
- North$412M-33.3%14.0%
- Mid-Atlantic$388M+1.1%13.2%
Forward guidance
The company provided guidance for Q1 and full fiscal year 2024, including estimates for deliveries, average delivered price, adjusted home sales gross margin, and SG&A percentage.
Tailwinds
- Deliveries are expected to be between 1,800 and 1,900 units for Q1 2024 and 9,850 to 10,350 units for the full fiscal year.
- The average delivered price per home is projected to be $985,000 - $1,005,000 for Q1 2024 and $940,000 - $960,000 for the full fiscal year.
- Adjusted home sales gross margin is anticipated to be 28.0% for Q1 2024 and 27.9% for the full fiscal year.
- Period-end community count is expected to be 375 for Q1 2024 and 410 for the full fiscal year.
- Tax rate is projected at 26.0% for both Q1 2024 and the full fiscal year.
Headwinds
- Other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and gross margin from land sales and other is expected to be $(10) million for Q1 2024.
- SG&A, as a percentage of home sales revenues, is projected to be 12.4% for Q1 2024 and 9.9% for the full fiscal year.
- Home Sales Revenues decreased by 18% compared to FY 2022’s fourth quarter
- Delivered homes were down 27% compared to FY 2022’s fourth quarter
- Backlog value was down 22% compared to FY 2022’s fourth quarter
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023
-0.2%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.5%
Avg return
5 days after
-0.6%
Avg return
30 days after
51%
35 / 68 earnings
Positive
+10.5%
Q3 2018
Best reaction
-19.5%
Q1 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +9.9% | +8.3% | +25.5% | |
| Q1 2026 | -2.5% | -3.3% | -19.4% | |
| Q4 2025 | -2.4% | +2.2% | -0.5% | |
| Q3 2025 | -0.7% | +4.9% | +5.7% | |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4% | -0.2% | +3.6% | |
| Q1 2025 | -5.9% | -9.4% | -13.0% | |
| Q4 2024 | -5.5% | -13.1% | -17.6% | |
| Q3 2024 | +5.5% | +11.3% | +14.6% | |
| Q2 2024 | -9.0% | -6.2% | -11.7% | |
| Q1 2024 | +5.3% | +8.9% | +23.8% | |
| Q4 2023 | +1.9% | +6.5% | +13.2% | |
| Q3 2023 | +5.1% | +3.1% | -1.9% | |
| Q2 2023 | +0.6% | +5.2% | +17.2% | |
| Q1 2023 | +0.5% | +2.0% | +1.9% | |
| Q4 2022 | +5.6% | +4.0% | +11.3% | |
| Q3 2022 | +1.5% | +1.3% | -7.6% | |
| Q2 2022 | +2.9% | +9.4% | -4.9% | |
| Q1 2022 | -9.4% | -0.8% | -8.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +2.3% | +5.3% | -3.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | +7.2% | +8.5% | +0.9% | |
| Q2 2021 | +6.3% | +7.7% | -6.1% | |
| Q1 2021 | +4.3% | -0.4% | +4.8% | |
| Q4 2020 | -5.4% | -7.3% | -11.6% | |
| Q3 2020 | -1.3% | -6.0% | +3.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | +7.0% | +6.7% | -2.7% | |
| Q1 2020 | -19.5% | -21.2% | -52.9% | |
| Q4 2019 | -3.6% | -2.8% | +1.1% | |
| Q3 2019 | -3.2% | -4.0% | +7.5% | |
| Q2 2019 | -2.4% | -3.2% | -0.2% | |
| Q1 2019 | -2.6% | -5.0% | -2.4% | |
| Q4 2018 | -1.0% | -1.2% | -1.0% | |
| Q3 2018 | +10.5% | +6.6% | +3.3% | |
| Q2 2018 | -8.5% | -6.6% | -14.3% | |
| Q1 2018 | -7.8% | -7.6% | -9.0% | |
| Q4 2017 | -7.9% | -5.5% | -1.0% | |
| Q3 2017 | -2.0% | -1.3% | +4.1% | |
| Q2 2017 | -0.2% | -1.7% | +2.3% | |
| Q1 2017 | +6.2% | +7.5% | +12.1% | |
| Q4 2016 | +7.0% | +5.6% | +4.6% | |
| Q3 2016 | +5.8% | +4.8% | -0.4% | |
| Q2 2016 | +7.3% | +7.6% | +1.8% | |
| Q1 2016 | +3.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -9.8% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -5.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | -1.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | +3.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | -7.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | -5.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | +2.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +1.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | +4.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -6.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | -5.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +2.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +2.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | +1.3% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -2.7% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | +0.2% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -2.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | +2.8% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | +1.6% | — | — |
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