NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Toll Brothers' financial performance significantly improved, driven by a successful strategy of broadening product lines and geographies.

Toll Brothers reported a strong third quarter in fiscal year 2021, with net income and earnings per share more than doubling compared to the previous year. Home sales revenues increased by 37%, and net signed contracts rose by 35%. The company's backlog value also reached a record high, indicating continued strong demand for its luxury homes.

  • Net income and earnings per share more than doubled compared to the prior year.
  • Home sales revenues increased by 37% year-over-year.
  • Net signed contracts grew by 35% in value, reaching a record high.
  • Backlog value increased by 55% year-over-year, also reaching a record high.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.26B

Previous: $1.65B+36.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.87

Previous: $0.90+107.8%
Net signed contracts value

$2.98B

Previous: $2.21B+34.8%
Net signed contracts units

3.2K

Previous: 2.8K+11.3%
Backlog value

$9.44B

Previous: $6.09B+55.0%
Backlog units

10.7K

Previous: 7.2K+47.3%
Avg backlog price

$885K

No prior period
Deliveries

2.6K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$45.8M

Previous: -$75M+39.0%
Free Cash Flow

$403M

Previous: -$128M+415.5%
Net Income

$235M

Previous: $115M+104.7%
Operating Income

$277M

Previous: $150M+84.9%
Gross Profit

$511M

Previous: $310M+64.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$946M

Previous: $559M+69.1%
Total Assets

$11.3B

Previous: $10.5B+6.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.66M

Previous: $3.83M-4.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.26B

Q3 2021+36.6%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $2.05B total across 5 segments · Q3 2021

  • Mountain
    $553M
  • Pacific
    $524M
  • North
    $403M
  • South
    $292M
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $277M

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers provided financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2021, including expected deliveries, average delivered price per home, adjusted home sales gross margin, and SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues.

Tailwinds

  • Deliveries are expected to be 3,450 units for the fourth quarter and 10,100 units for the full fiscal year 2021.
  • The average delivered price per home is projected to be $840,000 for the fourth quarter and $830,000 for the full fiscal year 2021.
  • Adjusted home sales gross margin is anticipated to be 25.6% for the fourth quarter and 24.9% for the full fiscal year 2021.
  • Other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and gross margin from land sales and other are expected to be $40 million for the fourth quarter and $140 million for the full fiscal year 2021.
  • The tax rate is projected to be 26.0% for the fourth quarter and 24.6% for the full fiscal year 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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