NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Toll Brothers reported strong Q2 2023 results, exceeding guidance due to improved demand and operational efficiency.

Toll Brothers reported record second quarter net income of $320.2 million, driven by increased demand, strategic spec home supply, and operational efficiency. The company is raising its full year guidance for almost every metric.

  • Net income reached $320.2 million, or $2.85 per share diluted, up 46% and 54%, respectively, compared to Q2 2022.
  • Home sales revenues increased by 14% to $2.5 billion with 2,492 homes delivered, a 4% increase.
  • Adjusted home sales gross margin exceeded guidance by 130 basis points, and SG&A expenses were 9.1% of home sales revenues, 200 basis points lower than last year.
  • The company retired $400 million of senior notes, extended credit facilities, repurchased $84 million of common stock, and paid $23 million in dividends.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.51B

Previous: $2.28B+10.1%
EPS (adj)

$2.85

Previous: $1.85+54.1%
Avg delivered price

$999K

No prior period
Net signed contracts value

$2.28B

Previous: $3.09B-26.2%
Net signed contracts units

2.3K

Previous: 2.9K-18.8%
Backlog value

$8.38B

Previous: $11.7B-28.4%
Backlog units

7.6K

Previous: 11.8K-35.6%
Avg backlog price

$1.11M

Previous: $995K+11.2%
Deliveries

2.5K

Previous: 2.4K+3.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$39.5M

Previous: -$39.1M-1.0%
Free Cash Flow

$106M

Previous: -$244M+143.4%
Net Income

$320M

Previous: $221M+45.2%
Operating Income

$426M

Previous: $282M+51.1%
Gross Profit

$653M

Previous: $525M+24.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$762M

Previous: $535M+42.4%
Total Assets

$12B

Previous: $11.5B+3.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.64M

Previous: $3.41M-22.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.51B

Q2 2023+10.1%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $2.49B total across 5 segments · Q2 2023

  • Mountain
    $674M+3.2%
  • Pacific
    $606M+11.9%
  • South
    $519M+59.1%
  • North
    $381M+0.1%
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $310M+15.4%

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers provided financial guidance for the third quarter and full fiscal year 2023, including projections for deliveries, average delivered price per home, adjusted home sales gross margin, SG&A expenses, other income, and tax rate.

Tailwinds

  • Deliveries for Q3 are expected to be between 2,350 and 2,450 units.
  • Deliveries for the full fiscal year are projected to be between 8,900 and 9,500 units.
  • The average delivered price per home is anticipated to be between $1,005,000 and $1,025,000 for Q3.
  • The average delivered price per home for the full fiscal year is expected to be between $975,000 and $995,000.
  • Adjusted home sales gross margin is projected to be 27.7% for Q3 and 27.8% for the full fiscal year.

Headwinds

  • SG&A, as a percentage of home sales revenues, is expected to be 9.7% for Q3 and 10.0% for the full fiscal year.
  • Other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and gross margin from land sales and other is projected at $25 million for Q3.
  • Other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and gross margin from land sales and other is projected at $125 million for the full fiscal year.
  • The tax rate is expected to be 26.0% for Q3 and 25.7% for the full fiscal year.
  • Period-end community count is expected to be 360 for Q3 and 385 for the full fiscal year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%+8.3%+25.5%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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