NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Toll Brothers reported record second-quarter results, driven by strong demand and strategic expansion.

Toll Brothers announced record second-quarter results for fiscal year 2021. Net signed contract value and contracted homes reached all-time highs. The company is raising its fiscal year 2021 guidance on nearly all key metrics, expecting continued margin improvement and projecting a return on beginning equity in excess of 20% in fiscal 2022.

  • Net income and earnings per share were $127.9 million and $1.01 per share diluted, compared to net income of $75.7 million and $0.59 per share diluted in FY 2020’s second quarter.
  • Home sales revenues were a second quarter record $1.84 billion, up 21% compared to FY 2020’s second quarter; delivered homes were 2,271, up 18%.
  • Net signed contract value was $3.05 billion, up 97% compared to FY 2020’s second quarter; contracted homes were 3,487, up 85%.
  • Backlog value was $8.69 billion at second quarter end, up 58% compared to FY 2020’s second quarter; homes in backlog were 10,104, up 57%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.93B

Previous: $1.55B+24.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.01

Previous: $0.59+71.2%
Avg Contract Price

$876K

No prior period
Avg delivered price

$809K

No prior period
Net signed contracts value

$3.05B

Previous: $1.55B+96.8%
Net signed contracts units

3.5K

Previous: 1.9K+84.9%
Backlog value

$8.69B

Previous: $5.49B+58.3%
Backlog units

10.1K

Previous: 6.4K+57.2%
Avg backlog price

$860K

Previous: $855K+0.7%
Deliveries

2.3K

Previous: 1.9K+18.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$29.6M

Previous: -$50.8M+41.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$473M

Previous: -$207M-128.6%
Net Income

$128M

Previous: $75.7M+69.0%
Operating Income

$184M

Previous: $92.5M+99.2%
Gross Profit

$404M

Previous: $272M+48.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$715M

Previous: $741M-3.5%
Total Assets

$11B

Previous: $10.8B+1.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.45M

Previous: $3.42M+0.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.93B

Q2 2021+24.6%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $1.78B total across 5 segments · Q2 2021

  • Pacific
    $459M+8.3%
  • Mountain
    $432M+27.9%
  • North
    $391M+32.0%
  • South
    $280M+21.4%
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $218M+13.2%

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers provided financial guidance for the third quarter and full fiscal year 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Deliveries are expected to be 2,675 units for the third quarter.
  • Full fiscal year 2021 deliveries are expected to be between 10,200 and 10,400 units.
  • The average delivered price is projected to be between $820,000 and $840,000 for the third quarter.
  • The average delivered price for the full fiscal year 2021 is expected to be between $805,000 and $825,000.
  • Adjusted home sales gross margin is anticipated to be 24.8% for the third quarter and 24.6% for the full fiscal year 2021.

Headwinds

  • SG&A, as a percentage of home sales revenues, is expected to be 11.6% for the third quarter and 11.8% for the full fiscal year 2021.
  • The quarter-end community count is projected to be approximately 310 for the third quarter and approximately 340 for the full fiscal year 2021.
  • Other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and gross margin from land sales and other is expected to be $20.0 million for the third quarter.
  • Other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and gross margin from land sales and other is expected to be $110.0 million for the full fiscal year 2021.
  • The tax rate is projected to be 26.0% for the third quarter and 25.5% for the full fiscal year 2021.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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