NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record revenues, earnings, contracts and backlog value, driven by strong demand and improved capital efficiency.

Toll Brothers reported strong Q4 2021 results with a significant increase in net income, earnings per share, and home sales revenues compared to the same quarter last year. The company's backlog value also reached a record high, and they foresee continued growth and profitability in FY 2022 despite supply chain and labor constraints.

  • Net income and earnings per share increased to $374.3 million and $3.02 per share diluted, respectively.
  • Home sales revenues rose to $2.95 billion, with 3,341 homes delivered.
  • Net signed contract value reached $3.00 billion.
  • Backlog value at quarter end was $9.50 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.04B

Previous: $2.55B+19.4%
EPS (adj)

$3.02

Previous: $1.55+94.8%
Net signed contracts value

$3B

Previous: $2.74B+9.5%
Backlog value

$9.5B

Previous: $6.37B+49.1%
Backlog units

10.3K

Previous: 7.8K+32.2%
Avg backlog price

$922K

No prior period
Deliveries

3.3K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$21.1M

Previous: $34.6M-38.9%
Free Cash Flow

$834M

Previous: $832M+0.2%
Net Income

$374M

Previous: $199M+87.8%
Operating Income

$441M

Previous: $261M+69.1%
Gross Profit

$699M

Previous: $507M+37.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.64B

Previous: $1.37B+19.5%
Total Assets

$11.5B

Previous: $11.1B+4.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.25M

Previous: $3.69M-12.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.04B

Q4 2021+19.4%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $2.83B total across 5 segments · Q4 2021

  • Pacific
    $842M+4.7%
  • Mountain
    $640M+25.5%
  • North
    $540M+2.9%
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $413M+43.0%
  • South
    $395M+12.6%

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers projects continued growth with a focus on capital efficiency, expecting revenue growth of 20% in FY 2022 and a 250 basis point improvement in full-year adjusted gross margin. They anticipate a further significant increase in their return on beginning equity to well over 20%.

Tailwinds

  • Strong pricing embedded in record backlog
  • Projected revenue growth of 20% in FY 2022
  • Expected improvement in full-year adjusted gross margin
  • Anticipated increase in return on beginning equity
  • Projected 10% community count growth by FYE 2022

Headwinds

  • Significant supply chain constraints
  • Labor constraints
  • Extended delivery times for homes
  • Uncertainty surrounding the duration and impact of Covid-19
  • Potential impact of inflation and interest rates

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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