NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong financial results driven by increased demand and effective operational execution.

Toll Brothers reported strong Q4 results, exceeding expectations for sales, revenues, margins, and earnings. Net signed contracts reached a record high, and the company is experiencing the strongest housing market in 30 years.

  • Net income was $199.3 million, or $1.55 per share diluted.
  • Home sales revenues increased by 9% to $2.50 billion.
  • Net signed contract value surged by 63% to $2.74 billion.
  • Backlog value rose by 21% to $6.37 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.55B

Previous: $2.38B+7.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.55

Previous: $1.41+9.9%
Net signed contracts value

$2.74B

Previous: $1.68B+63.1%
Net signed contracts units

3.4K

Previous: 2.0K+67.7%
Backlog value

$6.37B

Previous: $5.26B+21.1%
Backlog units

7.8K

Previous: 6.3K+24.3%
Capital Expenditures

$34.6M

Previous: $25.7M+34.5%
Free Cash Flow

$832M

Previous: $412M+101.9%
Net Income

$199M

Previous: $202M-1.5%
Operating Income

$261M

Previous: $225M+15.9%
Gross Profit

$507M

Previous: $432M+17.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.37B

Previous: $1.29B+6.6%
Total Assets

$11.1B

Previous: $10.8B+2.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.69M

Previous: $6.83M-46.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.55B

Q4 2020+7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $2.48B total across 5 segments · Q4 2020

  • Pacific
    $805M-1.8%
  • North
    $524M+3.2%
  • Mountain
    $510M+56.4%
  • South
    $350M+6.6%
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $289M+2.6%

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers provided financial guidance for the first quarter and full fiscal year 2021, including delivery expectations, average prices, gross margins, and SG&A expenses.

Tailwinds

  • First quarter deliveries of approximately 1,675 homes.
  • Average price between $780,000 and $800,000 for first quarter deliveries.
  • FY 2021 deliveries of between 9,600 and 10,200 homes.
  • Average price between $790,000 and $810,000 for FY 2021 deliveries.
  • FY 2021 adjusted home sales gross margin of approximately 24.1%.

Headwinds

  • First quarter adjusted home sales gross margin of approximately 22.4%.
  • First quarter SG&A, as a percentage of home sales revenues, of approximately 15.8%.
  • Includes approximately $11 million of G&A expense not expected in subsequent quarters.
  • First quarter other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and land sales gross profit of approximately $25 million.
  • FY 2021 other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and land sales gross profit of approximately $65 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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