NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Toll Brothers' financial performance was highlighted by solid revenues, net income, and a substantial backlog.

Toll Brothers reported strong Q3 2020 results, including revenues of $1.63 billion, net income of $114.8 million, and a backlog of $6.09 billion. Net signed contracts were the highest in the company's history for the third quarter, driven by low interest rates and increased consumer focus on homeownership.

  • Net income was $114.8 million, or $0.90 per share diluted, compared to $146.3 million, or $1.00 per share diluted, in the third quarter of fiscal year 2019.
  • Home sales revenues totaled $1.63 billion, a 7% decrease, while home building deliveries increased by 1% to 2,022 units.
  • Net signed contract homes increased by 26% to 2,833, with a contract value of $2.21 billion, up 18%.
  • Backlog in homes at the end of the third quarter was 7,239, a 6% increase, with a backlog value of $6.09 billion, up 4%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.65B

Previous: $1.77B-6.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.90

Previous: $1.00-10.0%
Net signed contracts value

$2.21B

Previous: $1.87B+18.2%
Net signed contracts units

2.8K

Previous: 2.2K+26.4%
Backlog value

$6.09B

Previous: $5.84B+4.3%
Backlog units

7.2K

Previous: 6.8K+5.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$75M

Previous: -$61.3M-22.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$128M

Previous: -$174M+26.6%
Net Income

$115M

Previous: $146M-21.6%
Operating Income

$150M

Previous: $171M-12.5%
Gross Profit

$310M

Previous: $358M-13.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$559M

Previous: $836M-33.1%
Total Assets

$10.5B

Previous: $10.5B+0.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.83M

Previous: $5.44M-29.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.65B

Q3 2020-6.5%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $2.95B total across 5 segments · Q4 2023

  • Mountain
    $780M-19.7%
  • Pacific
    $710M-29.6%
  • South
    $660M+10.5%
  • North
    $412M-33.3%
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $388M+1.1%

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers provided guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020, including deliveries between 2,400 and 2,550 homes, an average price between $815,000 and $835,000, and an adjusted home sales gross margin of approximately 21.5%.

Tailwinds

  • Deliveries of between 2,400 and 2,550 homes
  • Average price of between $815,000 and $835,000
  • Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin of approximately 21.5%
  • SG&A, as a percentage of home sales revenues, of approximately 9.0%
  • Community count growth of at least 10% from FYE 2020 to FYE 2021

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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