NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Toll Brothers' first quarter results for fiscal year 2020 were announced, revealing a mix of increased contract activity and decreased profitability compared to the previous year.

Toll Brothers reported a decrease in net income and earnings per share for the first quarter of FY 2020, while net signed contract units and values increased. Home sales revenues slightly decreased, and home building deliveries increased. The company also repurchased a significant number of shares during the quarter.

  • Net income decreased to $56.9 million, with diluted EPS at $0.41, down from the previous year's $112.1 million and $0.76 respectively.
  • Home sales revenues were $1.30 billion, a 2% decrease, while home building deliveries increased by 5% to 1,611 units.
  • Net signed contract units increased by 31% to 1,806, and contract value rose by 28% to $1.49 billion.
  • The company repurchased 11.7 million shares for $476.0 million, reducing share count by approximately 8%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.33B

Previous: $1.36B-2.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.41

Previous: $0.76-46.1%
Avg Contract Price

$825K

No prior period
Avg delivered price

$805K

No prior period
Net signed contracts value

$1.49B

No prior period
Net signed contracts units

1.8K

No prior period
Backlog value

$5.45B

No prior period
Backlog units

6.5K

No prior period
Avg backlog price

$844K

No prior period
Deliveries

1.6K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$26.8M

Previous: -$19.6M-37.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$257M

Previous: -$11.7M-2095.5%
Net Income

$56.9M

Previous: $112M-49.2%
Operating Income

$47.5M

Previous: $124M-61.8%
Gross Profit

$239M

Previous: $287M-16.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$520M

Previous: $802M-35.2%
Total Assets

$10.6B

Previous: $10B+5.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$13.4M

Previous: $8.59M+55.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.33B

Q1 2020-2.3%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $1.29B total across 6 segments · Q1 2020

  • Pacific
    $395M
  • Mountain
    $263M
  • North
    $254M
  • South
    $184M
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $163M
  • Land sales and other
    $34.1M

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers provided financial guidance for the second quarter and full fiscal year 2020, including projected deliveries, gross margins, SG&A expenses, and other income.

Tailwinds

  • Second quarter deliveries are expected to be between 1,850 and 2,050 units with an average price of between $800,000 and $820,000.
  • Fiscal Year 2020 deliveries are projected to be between 8,600 and 9,100 units with an average price of between $800,000 and $820,000.
  • Second quarter Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin is anticipated to be approximately 20.50%.
  • Fiscal Year 2020 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin is expected to be around 21.25%.
  • Community count growth of approximately 10% is expected by the end of FY 2020 compared to FYE 2019.

Headwinds

  • Second quarter other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and land sales gross profit are projected to be approximately $5 million.
  • Fiscal Year 2020 other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and land sales gross profit is expected to be approximately $115 million.
  • Second quarter tax rate is estimated to be approximately 26.0%.
  • Fiscal Year 2020 tax rate is projected to be approximately 25.0%.
  • Fiscal Year 2020 SG&A expense reflects costs in advance of revenues from staffing and advertising associated with the planned increase in community openings.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%+8.3%+25.5%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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