NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Toll Brothers reported record third quarter earnings, driven by strong demand and improved operational efficiency.

Toll Brothers reported strong Q3 2023 results, with net income and EPS significantly up compared to the previous year. The company benefited from solid demand, low resale inventory, and a balanced spec strategy. They are raising full year guidance for deliveries, adjusted gross margin and SG&A leverage.

  • Net income reached $414.8 million, with EPS at $3.73 per share diluted, a 59% year-over-year increase.
  • Net signed contract value increased by 30% to $2.2 billion, with contracted homes up 77% to 2,245 units.
  • Home sales revenues rose by 19% to $2.7 billion, with 2,524 homes delivered, a 5% increase.
  • Adjusted home sales gross margin improved to 29.3% compared to 27.9% in the same quarter last year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.69B

Previous: $2.49B+7.7%
EPS (adj)

$3.73

Previous: $2.35+58.7%
Avg delivered price

$1.06M

No prior period
Net signed contracts value

$2.16B

Previous: $1.7B+27.1%
Net signed contracts units

2.2K

Previous: 1.3K+77.3%
Backlog value

$7.87B

Previous: $11.2B-29.7%
Backlog units

7.3K

Previous: 10.7K-32.0%
Avg backlog price

$1.08M

Previous: $1.04M+3.5%
Deliveries

2.5K

Previous: 2.4K+4.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$54.1M

Previous: -$56.5M+4.2%
Free Cash Flow

$621M

Previous: -$303M+304.8%
Net Income

$415M

Previous: $273M+51.7%
Operating Income

$515M

Previous: $362M+42.4%
Gross Profit

$744M

Previous: $595M+25.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.03B

Previous: $316M+226.5%
Total Assets

$12.4B

Previous: $11.7B+5.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.27M

Previous: $2.24M+90.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.69B

Q3 2023+7.7%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $2.67B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Mountain
    $726M+9.9%
  • Pacific
    $648M+28.0%
  • South
    $633M+79.4%
  • North
    $378M-21.1%
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $289M+13.6%

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers provided guidance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2023, including expectations for deliveries, average delivered price, adjusted home sales gross margin, and SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues.

Tailwinds

  • Deliveries are expected to be between 2,650 and 2,750 units for the fourth quarter and 9,500 to 9,600 units for the full fiscal year 2023.
  • The average delivered price per home is projected to be between $1,005,000 and $1,025,000 for the fourth quarter and $1,005,000 to $1,015,000 for the full fiscal year.
  • Adjusted home sales gross margin is anticipated to be 28.5% for both the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2023.
  • Other income, income from unconsolidated entities, and gross margin from land sales and other is expected to be $45 million for the fourth quarter and $105 million for the full fiscal year.
  • The tax rate is estimated to be 26.0% for the fourth quarter and 25.4% for the full fiscal year 2023.

Headwinds

  • SG&A, as a percentage of home sales revenues, is expected to be 8.8% for the fourth quarter and 9.4% for the full fiscal year 2023.
  • Rising rates remain a challenge.
  • The company ended FY 2023’s third quarter with approximately 70,200 lots owned and optioned, compared to 71,300 one quarter earlier, and 82,100 one year earlier.
  • The company ended its FY 2023 third quarter with 345 selling communities, compared to 350 at FY 2023’s second quarter end and 332 at FY 2022’s third quarter end.
  • Rising rates further cement the lock-in effect that has kept resale inventory at historically low levels.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%+8.3%+25.5%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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