NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Toll Brothers' third quarter results for fiscal year 2022 were reported, featuring an EPS of $2.35 and revenue of $2.3 billion.

Toll Brothers reported record third-quarter revenue and earnings, driven by a 230-basis point improvement in adjusted gross margin to 27.9%. EPS grew by 26% year-over-year to $2.35. However, deliveries were below guidance due to municipal inspector delays, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and softening demand.

  • Net income was $273.5 million, or $2.35 per share diluted, compared to $234.9 million, or $1.87 per share diluted, in the third quarter of fiscal year 2021.
  • Home sales revenues were $2.3 billion, up 1% compared to the third quarter of fiscal year 2021; delivered homes were 2,414, down 7%.
  • Net signed contract value was $1.7 billion, down 44% compared to the third quarter of fiscal year 2021; contracted homes were 1,266, down 60%.
  • Backlog value was $11.2 billion at third quarter end, up 19% compared to the third quarter of fiscal year 2021; homes in backlog were 10,725, up 1%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.49B

Previous: $2.26B+10.6%
EPS (adj)

$2.35

Previous: $1.87+25.7%
Net signed contracts value

$1.7B

Previous: $2.98B-43.0%
Net signed contracts units

1.3K

Previous: 3.2K-59.9%
Backlog value

$11.2B

Previous: $9.44B+18.6%
Backlog units

10.7K

Previous: 10.7K+0.6%
Avg backlog price

$1.04M

Previous: $885K+17.8%
Deliveries

2.4K

Previous: 2.6K-7.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$56.5M

Previous: -$45.8M-23.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$303M

Previous: $403M-175.3%
Net Income

$273M

Previous: $235M+16.4%
Operating Income

$362M

Previous: $277M+30.7%
Gross Profit

$595M

Previous: $511M+16.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$316M

Previous: $946M-66.5%
Total Assets

$11.7B

Previous: $11.3B+4.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.24M

Previous: $3.66M-38.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.49B

Q3 2022+10.6%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $2.25B total across 5 segments · Q3 2022

  • Mountain
    $661M+19.4%
  • Pacific
    $507M-3.3%
  • North
    $479M+18.8%
  • South
    $353M+20.9%
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $254M-8.3%

Forward guidance

Toll Brothers expects to deliver between 3,250 and 3,550 homes in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022, with an average delivered price per home between $935,000 and $955,000. The adjusted home sales gross margin is expected to be 29.2%, and SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues is expected to be 8.7%.

Tailwinds

  • Strong pricing embedded in the $11.2 billion backlog.
  • Gross margin expansion expected in the fourth quarter to 29.2%.
  • Reaffirm full year adjusted gross margin guidance of 27.5% for fiscal year 2022.
  • Signs of increased demand with average weekly deposits in the first three weeks of August up 25% compared to July.
  • Long-term fundamentals underpinning the housing market remain firmly in place.

Headwinds

  • Lowered full-year deliveries guidance to between 10,000 and 10,300 homes in fiscal year 2022.
  • Deliveries were below guidance due to unforeseen delays with municipal inspectors.
  • Continued labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.
  • Softer demand environment.
  • Significant decline in demand as the combined impact of sharply rising mortgage rates, higher home prices, stock market volatility, and macroeconomic uncertainty caused many prospective buyers to step to the sidelines.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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