NYSE$TOL

Toll Brothers Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Toll Brothers reported strong first quarter results, exceeding guidance on key metrics and demonstrating increased demand beyond normal seasonality.

Toll Brothers reported a strong first quarter with net income of $191.5 million and earnings per share of $1.70. The company saw a 4% increase in home sales revenues to $1.7 billion, although home deliveries decreased by 5%. They are reaffirming their full FY 2023 guidance of an adjusted gross margin of 27.0% and $8.00 to $9.00 of earnings per share.

  • Net income was $191.5 million, with diluted earnings per share at $1.70.
  • Home sales revenues increased to $1.7 billion, a 4% rise year-over-year.
  • Net signed contract value decreased by 51% to $1.5 billion.
  • Adjusted home sales gross margin increased to 27.5%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.78B

Previous: $1.79B-0.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.70

Previous: $1.24+37.1%
Net signed contracts value

$1.45B

Previous: $2.99B-51.5%
Net signed contracts units

1.5K

Previous: 2.9K-50.1%
Backlog value

$8.58B

Previous: $10.8B-20.6%
Backlog units

7.7K

Previous: 11.3K-31.6%
Avg backlog price

$1.11M

Previous: $956K+16.1%
Deliveries

1.8K

Previous: 1.9K-5.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$19.7M

Previous: -$18.5M-6.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$378M

Previous: -$299M-26.2%
Net Income

$192M

Previous: $152M+26.1%
Operating Income

$225M

Previous: $175M+28.7%
Gross Profit

$437M

Previous: $402M+8.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$792M

Previous: $671M+17.9%
Total Assets

$12B

Previous: $11.3B+6.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$14.4M

Previous: $13.6M+5.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.78B

Q1 2023-0.6%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Toll Brothers · $1.75B total across 5 segments · Q1 2023

  • Mountain
    $480M+3.9%
  • South
    $393M+61.4%
  • Pacific
    $365M-5.2%
  • North
    $323M+2.3%
  • Mid-Atlantic
    $189M-22.1%

Forward guidance

The company provides guidance for the second quarter and full fiscal year 2023. For the second quarter, they anticipate 2,050 - 2,150 units delivered with an average delivered price per home of $980,000 - $1,000,000 and an adjusted home sales gross margin of 27.0%. For the full fiscal year 2023, they anticipate 8,000 - 9,000 units delivered with an average delivered price per home of $965,000 - $985,000 and an adjusted home sales gross margin of 27.0%.

Tailwinds

  • Deliveries between 2,050 and 2,150 units for Q2 2023.
  • Average delivered price per home between $980,000 and $1,000,000 for Q2 2023.
  • Adjusted home sales gross margin of 27.0% for Q2 2023.
  • Deliveries between 8,000 and 9,000 units for FY 2023.
  • Average delivered price per home between $965,000 and $985,000 for FY 2023.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-0.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

35 / 68 earnings

Positive

+10.5%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-19.5%

Q1 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+9.9%
Q1 2026-2.5%-3.3%-19.4%
Q4 2025-2.4%+2.2%-0.5%
Q3 2025-0.7%+4.9%+5.7%
Q2 2025-0.4%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2025-5.9%-9.4%-13.0%
Q4 2024-5.5%-13.1%-17.6%
Q3 2024+5.5%+11.3%+14.6%
Q2 2024-9.0%-6.2%-11.7%
Q1 2024+5.3%+8.9%+23.8%
Q4 2023+1.9%+6.5%+13.2%
Q3 2023+5.1%+3.1%-1.9%
Q2 2023+0.6%+5.2%+17.2%
Q1 2023+0.5%+2.0%+1.9%
Q4 2022+5.6%+4.0%+11.3%
Q3 2022+1.5%+1.3%-7.6%
Q2 2022+2.9%+9.4%-4.9%
Q1 2022-9.4%-0.8%-8.4%
Q4 2021+2.3%+5.3%-3.2%
Q3 2021+7.2%+8.5%+0.9%
Q2 2021+6.3%+7.7%-6.1%
Q1 2021+4.3%-0.4%+4.8%
Q4 2020-5.4%-7.3%-11.6%
Q3 2020-1.3%-6.0%+3.9%
Q2 2020+7.0%+6.7%-2.7%
Q1 2020-19.5%-21.2%-52.9%
Q4 2019-3.6%-2.8%+1.1%
Q3 2019-3.2%-4.0%+7.5%
Q2 2019-2.4%-3.2%-0.2%
Q1 2019-2.6%-5.0%-2.4%
Q4 2018-1.0%-1.2%-1.0%
Q3 2018+10.5%+6.6%+3.3%
Q2 2018-8.5%-6.6%-14.3%
Q1 2018-7.8%-7.6%-9.0%
Q4 2017-7.9%-5.5%-1.0%
Q3 2017-2.0%-1.3%+4.1%
Q2 2017-0.2%-1.7%+2.3%
Q1 2017+6.2%+7.5%+12.1%
Q4 2016+7.0%+5.6%+4.6%
Q3 2016+5.8%+4.8%-0.4%
Q2 2016+7.3%+7.6%+1.8%
Q1 2016+3.1%
Q4 2015-9.8%
Q3 2015-5.5%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015+3.8%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014-5.4%
Q2 2014+2.1%
Q1 2014+1.5%
Q4 2013-2.4%
Q3 2013+2.6%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013-6.6%
Q4 2012-5.6%
Q3 2012+2.5%
Q2 2012+2.1%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2011-2.7%
Q3 2011+0.2%
Q2 2011-2.0%
Q1 2010+2.8%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q3 2010+1.6%
Q3 2009+1.6%
Q4 2009+1.6%

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