NYSE$TOL
Toll Brothers Inc · Q4 2022 earnings
Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Toll Brothers reported record quarterly earnings, driven by strong pricing and improved efficiency.
Toll Brothers reported strong Q4 2022 results, with net income of $640.5 million and earnings per share of $5.63. Home sales revenues increased by 21% to $3.6 billion, and adjusted gross margin improved to 29.0%. Despite a challenging market, the company is positioned for a solid FY 2023 due to a strong backlog.
- Net income and earnings per share increased to $640.5 million and $5.63, respectively.
- Home sales revenues rose by 21% to $3.6 billion, with 3,765 homes delivered.
- Adjusted home sales gross margin improved to 29.0%, a 310-basis point increase.
- Net signed contract value decreased by 56% to $1.3 billion, reflecting a softer market.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Toll Brothers · Revenue · Quarterly
$3.71B
Revenue by segment
Toll Brothers · $3.58B total across 5 segments · Q4 2022
- Pacific$1.01B+19.8%28.2%
- Mountain$971M+51.8%27.1%
- North$618M+14.6%17.3%
- South$597M+51.4%16.7%
- Mid-Atlantic$384M-7.1%10.7%
Forward guidance
Toll Brothers anticipates delivering 1,750 to 1,850 units in Q1 2023, with an average delivered price per home between $950,000 and $970,000. The adjusted home sales gross margin is expected to be 27.0%, and SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues is projected at 13.5%.
Tailwinds
- Strong backlog of homes valued at $8.9 billion at fiscal year end.
- Sufficient land under control to increase community count by 10% in FY 2023.
- Solid balance sheet with over $3.0 billion of liquidity at fiscal year end.
- Expectation to generate significant cash flow from operations in FY 2023.
- Long-term prospects for the housing market remain positive due to demographic and migration trends.
Headwinds
- Dramatic increase in mortgage rates presents a challenging market.
- Many homebuyers are on the sidelines, waiting for clarity on the direction of mortgage rates and the overall economy.
- Net signed contracts were down 60% in units and 56% in dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Uncertain demand environment requires balancing the delivery of backlog with the generation of new sales.
- Pricing strategy reflects an evaluation of local market dynamics and appropriate price adjustments will continue to be made as FY 2023 progresses.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022
-0.2%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.3%
Avg return
5 days after
-1.3%
Avg return
30 days after
51%
35 / 68 earnings
Positive
+10.5%
Q3 2018
Best reaction
-19.5%
Q1 2020
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +9.9% | — | — | |
| Q1 2026 | -2.5% | -3.3% | -19.4% | |
| Q4 2025 | -2.4% | +2.2% | -0.5% | |
| Q3 2025 | -0.7% | +4.9% | +5.7% | |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4% | -0.2% | +3.6% | |
| Q1 2025 | -5.9% | -9.4% | -13.0% | |
| Q4 2024 | -5.5% | -13.1% | -17.6% | |
| Q3 2024 | +5.5% | +11.3% | +14.6% | |
| Q2 2024 | -9.0% | -6.2% | -11.7% | |
| Q1 2024 | +5.3% | +8.9% | +23.8% | |
| Q4 2023 | +1.9% | +6.5% | +13.2% | |
| Q3 2023 | +5.1% | +3.1% | -1.9% | |
| Q2 2023 | +0.6% | +5.2% | +17.2% | |
| Q1 2023 | +0.5% | +2.0% | +1.9% | |
| Q4 2022 | +5.6% | +4.0% | +11.3% | |
| Q3 2022 | +1.5% | +1.3% | -7.6% | |
| Q2 2022 | +2.9% | +9.4% | -4.9% | |
| Q1 2022 | -9.4% | -0.8% | -8.4% | |
| Q4 2021 | +2.3% | +5.3% | -3.2% | |
| Q3 2021 | +7.2% | +8.5% | +0.9% | |
| Q2 2021 | +6.3% | +7.7% | -6.1% | |
| Q1 2021 | +4.3% | -0.4% | +4.8% | |
| Q4 2020 | -5.4% | -7.3% | -11.6% | |
| Q3 2020 | -1.3% | -6.0% | +3.9% | |
| Q2 2020 | +7.0% | +6.7% | -2.7% | |
| Q1 2020 | -19.5% | -21.2% | -52.9% | |
| Q4 2019 | -3.6% | -2.8% | +1.1% | |
| Q3 2019 | -3.2% | -4.0% | +7.5% | |
| Q2 2019 | -2.4% | -3.2% | -0.2% | |
| Q1 2019 | -2.6% | -5.0% | -2.4% | |
| Q4 2018 | -1.0% | -1.2% | -1.0% | |
| Q3 2018 | +10.5% | +6.6% | +3.3% | |
| Q2 2018 | -8.5% | -6.6% | -14.3% | |
| Q1 2018 | -7.8% | -7.6% | -9.0% | |
| Q4 2017 | -7.9% | -5.5% | -1.0% | |
| Q3 2017 | -2.0% | -1.3% | +4.1% | |
| Q2 2017 | -0.2% | -1.7% | +2.3% | |
| Q1 2017 | +6.2% | +7.5% | +12.1% | |
| Q4 2016 | +7.0% | +5.6% | +4.6% | |
| Q3 2016 | +5.8% | +4.8% | -0.4% | |
| Q2 2016 | +7.3% | +7.6% | +1.8% | |
| Q1 2016 | +3.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | -9.8% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -5.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | -1.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | +3.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | -7.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | -5.4% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | +2.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +1.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | +2.6% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | +4.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | -6.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | -5.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | +2.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | +2.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | +1.3% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -2.7% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | +0.2% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -2.0% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | +2.8% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | +1.6% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | +1.6% | — | — |
Discussion
Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.
Join the conversation
Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.
Sign in with eToro