NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended December 28, 2024, reporting an increase in net sales and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. reported solid fourth quarter results with net sales increasing by 10.9% to $1.10 billion and adjusted EBITDA increasing by 12.5% to $57.2 million. However, net income decreased significantly to $2.3 million from $14.1 million in the prior year, primarily due to lower gross margin and higher selling, general and administrative expenses.

  • Net sales for Q4 2024 increased by 10.9% to $1.10 billion compared to Q4 2023.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 2.9% in Q4 2024.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 12.5% to $57.2 million in Q4 2024.
  • Net income for Q4 2024 decreased to $2.3 million from $14.1 million in Q4 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.1B

Previous: $990M+11.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.15

Previous: $0.18-16.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$66.1M

Previous: -$61.2M-8.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$19.6M

No prior period
Net Income

$2.31M

Previous: $14.1M-83.6%
Operating Income

$11.4M

Previous: $18.9M-39.9%
Gross Profit

$324M

Previous: $299M+8.4%
R&D Expense

$0.00

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.1B

Q4 2024+11.1%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For fiscal year 2025, Grocery Outlet expects net sales between $4.7 billion and $4.8 billion, comparable store sales increase of 2.0% to 3.0%, and adjusted EBITDA between $260 million and $270 million. The company also anticipates opening 33 to 35 net new stores and projects adjusted diluted earnings per share between $0.70 and $0.75.

Tailwinds

  • Projected net sales growth to $4.7 billion - $4.8 billion for fiscal 2025.
  • Anticipated comparable store sales increase of 2.0% - 3.0% for fiscal 2025.
  • Expected increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $260 million - $270 million for fiscal 2025.
  • Plans to open 33 to 35 net new stores in fiscal 2025.
  • Projected adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.70 - $0.75 for fiscal 2025.

Headwinds

  • Restructuring Plan costs are estimated to be between $52 million and $61 million, with $36 million to $45 million expected as cash expenditures.
  • The company does not reconcile non-GAAP forward-looking guidance to GAAP measures due to variability and low visibility of certain items.
  • Future GAAP financial results may be unpredictably and significantly impacted by these variable items.
  • Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) are projected to be $210 million, indicating significant investment.
  • Gross margin is projected to be 30.0%-30.5%, which is a slight decrease from the prior fiscal year's 30.2%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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