NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net sales increase and comparable store sales growth, but experienced challenges with systems conversion that impacted earnings.

Grocery Outlet's Q3 2024 saw a 10.4% increase in net sales, reaching $1.11 billion, and a 1.2% rise in comparable store sales driven by transaction growth. However, net income decreased by 10.9% to $24.2 million due to challenges with systems conversion.

  • Net sales increased by 10.4% to $1.11 billion.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 1.2%, driven by a 2.0% increase in transactions.
  • Opened 5 new stores, ending the quarter with 529 stores.
  • Net income decreased 10.9% to $24.2 million, or $0.24 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.11B

Previous: $1B+10.4%
EPS

$0.24

Previous: $0.31-22.6%
Comparable Store Sales

1.2%

Previous: 6.4%-81.3%
Total Stores

529

Previous: 455+16.3%
New Store Openings

5

Previous: 8-37.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$128M

Previous: -$113M-12.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$103M

Previous: -$85.8M-20.5%
Net Income

$24.2M

Previous: $27.1M-10.9%
Operating Income

$40.3M

Previous: $37.6M+7.3%
Gross Profit

$345M

Previous: $316M+9.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$68.7M

Previous: $156M-55.9%
Total Assets

$3.14B

Previous: $2.93B+7.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.66M

Previous: $7.54M-77.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.11B

Q3 2024+10.4%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is updating key guidance figures for fiscal 2024.

Tailwinds

  • New store openings, net: 66
  • Net sales: Slightly above $4.35 billion
  • Comparable store sales increase: ~2.4%
  • Gross margin: ~30.4%
  • Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances): ~$200 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $237 million to $242 million
  • Adjusted diluted earnings per share: $0.77 to $0.80

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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