NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Grocery Outlet's Q1 2023 performance exceeded expectations with strong same-store sales, gross margin expansion, and bottom-line leverage.

Grocery Outlet's Q1 2023 net sales increased by 16.1% to $965.5 million, with comparable store sales up 12.1%. Net income rose by 18.5% to $13.7 million, or $0.14 per diluted share. The company opened three new stores, bringing the total to 444 stores. They are raising guidance for fiscal year 2023.

  • Net sales increased by 16.1% to $965.5 million.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 12.1%, driven by a 7.9% increase in transactions and a 3.9% increase in average transaction size.
  • Opened three new stores, ending the quarter with 444 stores in eight states.
  • Net income increased 18.5% to $13.7 million, or $0.14 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$965M

Previous: $831M+16.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.27

Previous: $0.22+22.7%
Comparable Store Sales

12.1%

Previous: -1.2%+1108.3%
Total Stores

444

Previous: 415+7.0%
New Store Openings

3

Previous: 8-62.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$32.9M

Previous: -$32.1M-2.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$19.2M

Previous: -$20.5M+6.6%
Net Income

$13.7M

Previous: $11.6M+18.5%
Operating Income

$32.8M

Previous: $19.4M+68.9%
Gross Profit

$301M

Previous: $251M+19.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$82.1M

Previous: $138M-40.5%
Total Assets

$2.77B

Previous: $2.71B+2.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$6.68M

Previous: $5.8M+15.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$965M

Q1 2023+16.1%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is revising its fiscal 2023 outlook on key metrics.

Tailwinds

  • New store openings, net: 25 to 28
  • Net sales: ~$3.90 billion
  • Comparable store sales increase: 5.0% to 6.0%
  • Gross margin: ~30.7%
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $240 million to $246 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted earnings per share — diluted: $0.96 to $1.00
  • Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances): ~$155 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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