NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced third quarter fiscal 2020 financial results, with net sales increasing by 17.1% and comparable store sales increasing by 9.1%.

Grocery Outlet reported a strong third quarter in fiscal year 2020, marked by a 17.1% increase in net sales, reaching $764.1 million, and a 9.1% increase in comparable store sales. The company's net income saw a substantial rise of 225.2% to $40.5 million. Grocery Outlet opened 10 new stores, bringing the total to 372 stores across six states.

  • Net sales increased by 17.1% to $764.1 million compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2019.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 9.1% compared to a 5.8% increase in the same period last year.
  • The company opened 10 new stores, ending the quarter with 372 stores in six states.
  • Net income increased 225.2% to $40.5 million, or $0.41 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$764M

Previous: $652M+17.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.50

Previous: $0.22+127.3%
Comparable Store Sales

9.1%

Previous: 5.8%+56.9%
Total Stores

372

No prior period
New Store Openings

10

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$85.8M

Previous: -$71.4M-20.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$45.4M

Previous: -$59M+23.1%
Net Income

$40.5M

Previous: $12.4M+225.2%
Operating Income

$30.3M

Previous: $23.9M+26.6%
Gross Profit

$238M

Previous: $201M+18.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$59.1M

Previous: $44M+34.2%
Total Assets

$2.39B

Previous: $2.13B+12.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.86M

Previous: $2.89M+33.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$764M

Q3 2020+17.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 10 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Grocery Outlet anticipates positive mid-single-digit comparable store sales growth for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, driven by an increase in average basket size that is partially offset by declines in store traffic. The company expects to open 34 stores this year with no additional closures planned and a normalized tax rate of 28%.

Tailwinds

  • Comparable store sales growth for the fourth quarter is expected to be in the positive mid-single digits.
  • Growth is driven by an increase in average basket size.
  • The company expects to open 34 stores this year.
  • No additional store closures are planned.
  • The company continues to build its real estate pipeline to support 10% annual unit growth.

Headwinds

  • Store traffic is declining.
  • Comparable store sales for the full fourth quarter expected to remain consistent at positive mid-single digits.
  • Excluding the impact of discrete items, the Company anticipates a normalized tax rate of 28%.
  • Weighted average diluted share count is expected to be approximately 100 million shares for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020.
  • The grocery industry is highly competitive.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro