NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Grocery Outlet announced financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2022, with net sales increasing and comparable store sales showing strong growth.

Grocery Outlet's Q3 2022 results showed strong performance with a 19.4% increase in net sales to $918.2 million and a 15.4% increase in comparable store sales. The company opened six new stores, ending the quarter with 431 stores. Net income increased by 2.1% to $17.5 million, or $0.17 per diluted share.

  • Net sales increased by 19.4% to $918.2 million.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 15.4%.
  • The Company opened six new stores, ending the quarter with 431 stores in eight states.
  • Net income increased by 2.1% to $17.5 million, or $0.17 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$918M

Previous: $769M+19.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.27

Previous: $0.24+12.5%
Comparable Store Sales

15.4%

Previous: -4.3%+458.1%
Total Stores

431

Previous: 407+5.9%
New Store Openings

6

Previous: 7-14.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$85.4M

Previous: -$89.6M+4.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$67.9M

Previous: -$72.4M+6.3%
Net Income

$17.5M

Previous: $17.1M+2.1%
Operating Income

$24.7M

Previous: $26.1M-5.6%
Gross Profit

$281M

Previous: $237M+18.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$107M

Previous: $156M-31.2%
Total Assets

$2.75B

Previous: $2.62B+5.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$9.08M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$918M

Q3 2022+19.4%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is revising its fiscal 2022 outlook on key metrics.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales are expected to be approximately $3.55 billion.
  • Comparable store sales increase is expected to be approximately 11%.
  • Gross margin is expected to be approximately 30.5%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $224 million.
  • Adjusted earnings per share — diluted is expected to be approximately $1.00.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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