NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Net sales increased by 18.9% and comparable store sales grew by 15.1%, driven by a 10.0% increase in transactions.

Grocery Outlet reported strong Q4 2022 results, with net sales increasing by 18.9% to $930.8 million and comparable store sales growing by 15.1%. Net income increased by 139.3% to $15.9 million, or $0.16 per diluted share. The company opened ten new stores, ending the quarter with 441 stores in eight states.

  • Net sales increased by 18.9% to $930.8 million.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 15.1%, driven by a 10.0% increase in transactions and a 4.6% increase in average transaction size.
  • The company opened ten new stores, ending the quarter with 441 stores in eight states.
  • Net income increased 139.3% to $15.9 million, or $0.16 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$931M

Previous: $783M+18.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.25

Previous: $0.20+25.0%
Comparable Store Sales

15.1%

Previous: 7.9%+91.1%
Total Stores

441

Previous: 380+16.1%
New Store Openings

10

Previous: 8+25.0%
Capital Expenditures

$45.1M

Previous: $125M-63.9%
Free Cash Flow

$528K

Previous: $56.3M-99.1%
Net Income

$15.9M

Previous: $24.3M-34.5%
Operating Income

$24M

Previous: $27.8M-13.9%
Gross Profit

$281M

Previous: $244M+15.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$103M

Previous: $105M-2.5%
Total Assets

$2.77B

Previous: $2.49B+11.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.19M

Previous: $38.1M-78.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$931M

Q4 2022+18.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is providing the following outlook for fiscal 2023: New store openings, net 25 to 28 Net sales $3.85 billion to $3.90 billion Comparable store sales increase 4.5% to 5.5% Gross margin ~30.6% Adjusted EBITDA, revised definition(1) $237 million to $243 million Adjusted earnings per share — diluted, revised definition(1) $0.94 to $0.99 Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) ~$155 million

Tailwinds

  • New store openings, net 25 to 28
  • Net sales $3.85 billion to $3.90 billion
  • Comparable store sales increase 4.5% to 5.5%
  • Gross margin ~30.6%
  • Adjusted EBITDA, revised definition(1) $237 million to $243 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted earnings per share — diluted, revised definition(1) $0.94 to $0.99
  • Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) ~$155 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro