NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Grocery Outlet's financial performance for Q1 2020 was announced, demonstrating substantial growth in net sales, comparable store sales, and net income.

Grocery Outlet reported a strong first quarter in fiscal year 2020, marked by a 25.4% increase in net sales, a 17.4% rise in comparable store sales, and a 235.0% surge in net income. The company opened eight net new stores, bringing the total to 355 stores across six states. While not providing formal 2020 earnings guidance due to COVID-19 uncertainties, Grocery Outlet remains confident in its ability to execute its long-term growth strategies.

  • Net sales increased by 25.4% to $760.3 million compared to $606.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2019.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 17.4% compared to a 4.2% increase in the same period last year.
  • Net income increased by 235.0% to $12.6 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, compared to $3.8 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, in the first quarter of fiscal 2019.
  • The Company opened eight net new stores ending the quarter with 355 stores in six states.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$760M

Previous: $606M+25.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.36

Previous: $0.04+741.8%
Comparable Store Sales

17.4%

Previous: 4.2%+314.3%
Total Stores

355

No prior period
New Store Openings

8

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$28.2M

Previous: $18.4M-253.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$15.5M

Previous: $3.84M-504.3%
Net Income

$12.6M

Previous: $3.77M+235.0%
Operating Income

$16.9M

Previous: $21.7M-22.1%
Gross Profit

$237M

Previous: $187M+26.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$161M

Previous: $19.6M+721.3%
Total Assets

$2.32B

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$20.3M

Previous: $211K+9510.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$760M

Q1 2020+25.3%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 10 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Due to the uncertainty related to COVID-19, Grocery Outlet is not providing formal 2020 earnings guidance at this time but expects to open between 28 and 30 stores this year with no additional closures planned. Quarter-to-date comparable store sales growth is tracking in the mid-teens driven by an increase in average basket size partially offset by declines in store traffic due to shelter-in-place restrictions. The impact of the COVID-19 situation remains fluid and therefore it is difficult to predict the impact of potential changes to shelter-in-place restrictions.

Tailwinds

  • Company expects to open between 28 and 30 stores this year with no additional closures planned.
  • Company continues to build its real estate pipeline to support 10% annual unit growth in the future.
  • Quarter-to-date comparable store sales growth is tracking in the mid-teens.
  • Increase in average basket size
  • Performance and liquidity position remain strong, allowing us to continue investing in pursuit of our long term growth strategies.

Headwinds

  • Not providing formal 2020 earnings guidance at this time due to the uncertainty related to COVID-19
  • Incremental operational expenses, primarily in the second quarter, related to COVID-19, including additional cleaning and safety measures.
  • Corporate and distribution center personnel expense including premium pay, overtime and temporary labor, and costs for protective equipment and supplies at its stores and facilities.
  • Declines in store traffic due to shelter-in-place restrictions.
  • Impact of the COVID-19 situation remains fluid and therefore it is difficult to predict the impact of potential changes to shelter-in-place restrictions.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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