NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Net sales increased, comparable store sales grew, and new stores opened.

Grocery Outlet reported a 6.3% increase in net sales to $989.8 million and a 2.7% increase in comparable store sales, driven by a 7.5% increase in transactions. The company opened 13 new stores, ending the quarter with 468 stores. Net income decreased 11.2% to $14.1 million, or $0.14 per diluted share.

  • Net sales increased by 6.3% to $989.8 million.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 2.7%, driven by a 7.5% increase in transactions.
  • The Company opened 13 new stores, ending the quarter with 468 stores in nine states.
  • Net income decreased 11.2% to $14.1 million, or $0.14 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$990M

Previous: $931M+6.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.18

Previous: $0.25-28.0%
Gross Margin

30.2%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$50.9M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$61.2M

Previous: $45.1M-235.7%
Net Income

$14.1M

Previous: $15.9M-11.2%
Operating Income

$18.9M

Previous: $24M-21.0%
Gross Profit

$299M

Previous: $281M+6.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.58M

Previous: $8.19M-32.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$990M

Q4 2023+6.3%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is providing the following outlook for fiscal 2024, assuming the acquisition of UGO early in the second quarter of fiscal 2024: New store openings, net(2)55 to 60Net sales(3)$4.30 billion to $4.35 billionComparable store sales increase3.0% to 4.0%Gross margin~31.3%Adjusted EBITDA(1)(4)$275 million to $283 millionAdjusted earnings per share — diluted(1)$1.14 to $1.20Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances)(5)~$170 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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