NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Achieved first quarterly $1 billion net sales performance with comparable store sales increase and raised key guidance for fiscal 2023.

Grocery Outlet announced strong second quarter fiscal 2023 results, with net sales increasing by 12.5% to $1.01 billion and comparable store sales increasing by 9.2%. Net income increased 21.8% to $24.5 million, or $0.24 per diluted share. The company is raising key guidance figures for fiscal 2023.

  • Net sales increased by 12.5% to $1.01 billion.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 9.2%, driven by a 9.1% increase in the number of transactions.
  • The Company opened four new stores and closed one, ending the quarter with 447 stores in eight states.
  • Net income increased 21.8% to $24.5 million, or $0.24 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.01B

Previous: $898M+12.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.32

Previous: $0.29+10.3%
Comparable Store Sales

9.2%

Previous: 11.2%-17.9%
Total Stores

447

Previous: 425+5.2%
New Store Openings

4

Previous: 7-42.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$66M

Previous: -$58.3M-13.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$41.6M

Previous: -$38.2M-8.7%
Net Income

$24.5M

Previous: $20.1M+21.8%
Operating Income

$36.5M

Previous: $26.9M+35.6%
Gross Profit

$327M

Previous: $279M+16.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$87.6M

Previous: $84.3M+3.9%
Total Assets

$2.82B

Previous: $2.69B+4.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$11.3M

Previous: $9.48M+19.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.01B

Q2 2023+12.5%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is raising key guidance figures for fiscal 2023 as follows: New store openings, net 25 to 28, Net sales ~$3.95 billion, Comparable store sales increase 7.0% to 8.0%, Gross margin ~31.3%, Adjusted EBITDA(1) $254 million to $260 million Adjusted earnings per share — diluted(1) $1.04 to $1.08, Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) ~$155 million

Tailwinds

  • New store openings, net 25 to 28
  • Net sales ~$3.95 billion
  • Comparable store sales increase 7.0% to 8.0%
  • Gross margin ~31.3%
  • Adjusted EBITDA(1) $254 million to $260 million

Headwinds

  • Adjusted earnings per share — diluted(1) $1.04 to $1.08
  • Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) ~$155 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.3%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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