NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Grocery Outlet's Q1 2024 financial performance showed increased net sales and comparable store sales, but gross margin was impacted by technology platform implementation disruptions.

Grocery Outlet reported a 7.4% increase in net sales, reaching $1.04 billion, and a 3.9% rise in comparable store sales driven by a 7.0% increase in transactions. However, gross margin decreased by 180 basis points due to disruptions from new technology platforms. The company opened six new stores, bringing the total to 474 stores. Net loss was $1.0 million, or $(0.01) per share.

  • Net sales increased by 7.4% to $1.04 billion.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 3.9%, driven by a 7.0% increase in transactions.
  • Six new stores were opened, ending the quarter with 474 stores.
  • Gross margin decreased by 180 basis points to 29.3%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.04B

Previous: $965M+7.4%
EPS

-$0.01

Previous: $0.27-103.7%
Gross Margin

29.3%

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$39.4M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$46.3M

Previous: -$32.9M-40.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$47.3M

Previous: -$19.2M-146.6%
Net Income

-$1.03M

Previous: $13.7M-107.5%
Operating Income

$563K

Previous: $32.8M-98.3%
Gross Profit

$304M

Previous: $301M+1.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$66.9M

Previous: $82.1M-18.5%
Total Assets

$2.97B

Previous: $2.77B+7.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.14M

Previous: $6.68M+22.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.04B

Q1 2024+7.4%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is updating key guidance figures for fiscal 2024. New store openings, net is expected to be 58 to 62. Net sales is expected to be $4.30 billion to $4.35 billion. Comparable store sales increase is expected to be 3.5% to 4.5%. Gross margin is expected to be ~30.5%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $252 million to $260 million. Adjusted earnings per share — diluted is expected to be $0.89 to $0.95. Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) is expected to be ~$175 million.

Tailwinds

  • New store openings, net is expected to be 58 to 62.
  • Net sales is expected to be $4.30 billion to $4.35 billion.
  • Comparable store sales increase is expected to be 3.5% to 4.5%.
  • Gross margin is expected to be ~30.5%.
  • Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) is expected to be ~$175 million.

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $252 million to $260 million.
  • Adjusted earnings per share — diluted is expected to be $0.89 to $0.95.
  • The above-referenced full year guidance reflects the Company's estimates of the negative impact of systems implementation to second quarter gross margin of approximately 100 basis points.
  • Includes addition of 40 stores from acquisition of UGO.
  • Includes $125 million for the second through fourth quarters of fiscal 2024 from acquisition of UGO.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.3%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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