NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced second quarter fiscal 2020 financial results, with net sales increasing by 24.5% and comparable store sales increasing by 16.7%.

Grocery Outlet reported a strong second quarter in fiscal 2020, marked by a 24.5% increase in net sales, reaching $803.4 million, and a 16.7% increase in comparable store sales. Net income increased significantly by $40.0 million to $29.3 million. The company opened 7 new stores, expanding its network to 362 stores across six states.

  • Net sales increased by 24.5% to $803.4 million compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2019.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 16.7% compared to a 5.8% increase in the same period last year.
  • The company opened 7 new stores, ending the quarter with 362 stores in six states.
  • Net income increased $40.0 million to $29.3 million, or $0.30 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$803M

Previous: $645M+24.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.42

Previous: $0.20+110.0%
Comparable Store Sales

16.7%

Previous: 5.8%+187.9%
Total Stores

362

No prior period
New Store Openings

7

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$50M

Previous: -$39.8M-25.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$20.6M

Previous: -$50.4M+59.1%
Net Income

$29.3M

Previous: -$10.6M+375.9%
Operating Income

$32.4M

Previous: $5.74M+464.2%
Gross Profit

$254M

Previous: $199M+27.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$79.8M

Previous: $18.7M+327.3%
Total Assets

$2.32B

Previous: $2.08B+11.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$10.2M

Previous: $22.8M-55.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$803M

Q2 2020+24.5%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 6 of 10 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Grocery Outlet anticipates opening between 30 and 32 stores this year and expects comparable store sales growth to moderate as the economy reopens. Quarter-to-date comparable store sales growth is tracking at approximately 10%. The company anticipates a normalized tax rate of 28% and a weighted average diluted share count of approximately 100 million shares for fiscal 2020.

Tailwinds

  • Expects to open between 30 and 32 stores this year.
  • Continues to build its real estate pipeline to support 10% annual unit growth.
  • Quarter-to-date comparable store sales growth is tracking at approximately 10%.
  • Anticipates a normalized tax rate of 28%.
  • Weighted average diluted share count is expected to be approximately 100 million shares for fiscal 2020.

Headwinds

  • Not providing formal 2020 earnings guidance at this time due to the uncertainty related to COVID-19.
  • Comparable store sales growth will continue to moderate as the economy reopens.
  • Quarter-to-date comparable store sales growth is partially offset by declines in store traffic.
  • Uncertainty related to COVID-19.
  • Economy reopening.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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