NASDAQ$GO

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023.

Grocery Outlet reported a 9.3% increase in net sales to $1.00 billion and a 6.4% increase in comparable store sales. Net income increased by 55.1% to $27.1 million, with diluted EPS of $0.27. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 20.0% to $68.1 million.

  • Net sales increased by 9.3% to $1.00 billion.
  • Comparable store sales increased by 6.4%, driven by a 8.6% increase in the number of transactions partially offset by a 1.9% decrease in average transaction size.
  • Gross margin increased to 31.4%, 80 basis points over the third quarter of last year.
  • The Company opened eight new stores, ending the quarter with 455 stores in eight states.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1B

Previous: $918M+9.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.31

Previous: $0.27+14.8%
Comparable Store Sales

6.4%

Previous: 15.4%-58.4%
Total Stores

455

Previous: 431+5.6%
New Store Openings

8

Previous: 6+33.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$113M

Previous: -$85.4M-32.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$85.8M

Previous: -$67.9M-26.4%
Net Income

$27.1M

Previous: $17.5M+55.1%
Operating Income

$37.6M

Previous: $24.7M+52.1%
Gross Profit

$316M

Previous: $281M+12.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$156M

Previous: $107M+45.1%
Total Assets

$2.93B

Previous: $2.75B+6.5%
R&D Expense

$0.00

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$7.54M

Previous: $9.08M-17.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Grocery Outlet · Revenue · Quarterly

$1B

Q3 2023+9.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is updating key guidance figures for fiscal 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales of ~$3.95 billion.
  • Comparable store sales increase of 7.0% to 7.5%.
  • Gross margin of ~31.2%.
  • Capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) of ~$155 million.
  • New store openings, net of 27.

Headwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $248 million to $252 million
  • Adjusted earnings per share — diluted of $1.04 to $1.06
  • System implementation impacts to fourth quarter comparable store sales of approximately 300 basis points
  • System implementation impacts to fourth quarter gross margin of approximately 150 basis points

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

17 / 32 earnings

Positive

+13.4%

Q3 2021

Best reaction

-30.2%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-2.5%-4.7%+20.4%
Q4 2025-28.1%-28.1%-17.9%
Q3 2025-8.1%-18.2%-20.0%
Q1 2025-6.3%-13.2%-16.2%
Q4 2024-30.2%-28.0%-15.8%
Q3 2024+11.8%+23.5%+30.3%
Q2 2024+7.4%+7.2%-7.0%
Q1 2024-19.1%-19.1%-17.2%
Q4 2023+0.6%+1.5%+10.7%
Q3 2023-4.0%-2.9%+4.5%
Q2 2023+4.2%+3.4%-8.9%
Q1 2023+4.4%+0.8%-6.0%
Q4 2022-4.4%-0.2%+2.1%
Q3 2022-5.6%-8.9%-12.8%
Q2 2022-7.2%-10.7%-16.7%
Q1 2022+10.5%+14.5%+14.6%
Q4 2021-2.1%+5.4%+17.9%
Q3 2021+13.4%+21.1%+19.9%
Q2 2021-12.4%-15.4%-20.9%
Q1 2021-19.9%-15.8%-17.7%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.8%-8.6%
Q2 2020-5.2%-4.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+0.6%+2.3%-9.6%
Q1 2020+2.1%+2.2%-7.5%
Q4 2018+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2017+6.7%+1.8%+5.1%
Q4 2019+6.3%+7.4%+7.7%
Q3 2018+1.9%+1.8%-1.7%
Q3 2019+4.8%+1.4%+2.7%
Q2 2019+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q2 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%
Q1 2018+5.2%+24.2%-1.8%

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