NYSE$FLO

Flowers Foods · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Flowers Foods reported record sales despite difficult market conditions, with volume trends improving and market share gains in Q4 2023.

Flowers Foods reported a 4.3% increase in sales, reaching a fourth-quarter record of $1.129 billion. Net income decreased by 26.6% to $35.7 million, while adjusted net income decreased by 11.2% to $42.7 million. Diluted EPS decreased to $0.17, and adjusted diluted EPS decreased to $0.20.

  • Sales increased 4.3% to a fourth-quarter record of $1.129 billion.
  • Net income decreased 26.6% to $35.7 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 0.1% to $96.3 million.
  • Diluted EPS decreased $0.06 to $0.17.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.13B

Previous: $1.08B+4.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.20

Previous: $0.23-13.0%
Sales Volume Change

-2.4%

Previous: -6.6%+63.6%
Sales Pricing/Mix Change

5.6%

Previous: 16.7%-66.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$32.1M

Previous: $40.7M-178.8%
Net Income

$35.7M

Previous: $48.6M-26.6%
Operating Income

$49.9M

Previous: $64.1M-22.2%
Gross Profit

$504M

Previous: $507M-0.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.56M

Previous: $5.7M-2.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Flowers Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.13B

Q4 2023+4.2%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Flowers Foods · $1.57B total across 2 segments · Q1 2026

  • Branded Retail
    $1.05B
  • Other
    $526M

Forward guidance

For the 52-week Fiscal 2024, the Company Expects: Sales in the range of approximately $5.091 billion to $5.172 billion, representing 0.0% to 1.6% growth compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of approximately $524 million to $553 million. Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.20 to $1.30.

Tailwinds

  • Sales in the range of approximately $5.091 billion to $5.172 billion, representing 0.0% to 1.6% growth compared to the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of approximately $524 million to $553 million.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.20 to $1.30.
  • Depreciation and amortization in the range of $160 million to $165 million.
  • Net interest expense of approximately $22 million to $26 million.

Headwinds

  • An effective tax rate of approximately 25%.
  • Weighted average diluted share count for the year of approximately 213 million shares.
  • Capital expenditures in the range of $120 million to $130 million, with $3 million to $6 million related to the ERP upgrade.
  • The 2024 outlook reflects confidence in our ability to successfully execute in a challenging category.
  • Results are expected to benefit from moderating commodity costs, positive pricing actions, and savings initiatives.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.5%
Q4 2025-8.7%-12.9%-22.6%
Q3 2025+1.9%-1.2%-7.5%
Q2 2025-5.3%-5.2%-17.1%
Q1 2025+1.5%-3.3%-6.4%
Q4 2024-1.3%-4.8%+0.3%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.8%-0.4%
Q2 2024+1.5%+1.8%+2.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.9%-12.5%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.3%-0.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-4.7%-2.0%
Q2 2023+3.9%+0.5%-7.2%
Q1 2023-9.2%-9.1%-12.9%
Q4 2022+0.2%+0.4%-0.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.6%-3.2%
Q1 2022+4.5%+5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.5%-13.9%
Q3 2021+2.3%+5.3%+1.7%
Q2 2021+5.7%+9.3%+2.3%
Q1 2021-2.1%-2.3%-3.8%
Q4 2020-0.1%-1.5%+3.0%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2020+2.3%+4.4%+3.4%
Q1 2020+1.6%+3.3%-1.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+2.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.0%+3.6%
Q2 2019-4.7%-7.0%-5.5%
Q1 2019+7.1%+7.8%+9.6%
Q4 2018+1.5%+0.6%+1.6%
Q3 2018-1.1%+5.5%+0.8%
Q2 2018-6.0%-6.1%-1.5%
Q1 2018-10.2%-10.9%-5.6%
Q4 2017+5.6%+7.9%+13.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.6%+13.2%
Q2 2017+0.0%+3.5%+2.0%
Q1 2017-6.6%-5.0%-9.9%
Q4 2016-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
Q3 2016-0.5%+3.5%+23.3%
Q2 2016-15.8%-14.0%-17.7%
Q1 2016+1.5%
Q4 2015-17.5%
Q3 2015-12.8%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+10.8%
Q3 2014-2.2%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.9%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013-2.0%
Q4 2012+1.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012-4.0%
Q1 2012+6.7%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-11.7%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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