NYSE$FLO

Flowers Foods · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Flowers Foods reported record results, driven by strong demand for branded retail products and effective cost management.

Flowers Foods reported a strong second quarter with a 5.1% increase in sales to $1.026 billion and an increase in diluted EPS to $0.27. The company benefited from a mix shift to branded retail products and is focused on portfolio and supply chain optimization to drive future growth.

  • Sales increased by 5.1% to $1.026 billion, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Diluted EPS increased to $0.27, a $0.02 increase.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS increased to $0.33, a $0.08 increase.
  • Branded retail sales increased by 17.7% to $689.5 million due to the pandemic and new product introductions.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.03B

Previous: $976M+5.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.33

Previous: $0.25+32.0%
Sales Volume Change

-3.3%

No prior period
Sales Pricing/Mix Change

8.4%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$46.6M

Previous: -$47.4M+1.7%
Free Cash Flow

$11.3M

Previous: $5.68M+99.3%
Net Income

$57.9M

Previous: $53.1M+9.1%
Operating Income

$79.2M

Previous: $72.3M+9.5%
Gross Profit

$520M

Previous: $467M+11.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$300M

Previous: $9.77M+2966.5%
Total Assets

$3.4B

Previous: $3.22B+5.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.94M

Previous: $1.13M+159.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Flowers Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.03B

Q2 2020+5.1%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Flowers Foods · $690M total across 1 segment · Q2 2020

  • Branded Retail
    $690M+17.7%

Forward guidance

For the 53-week fiscal 2020, the company expects sales in the range of approximately $4.290 billion to $4.330 billion, representing growth of approximately 4.0% to 5.0%, and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.15 to $1.25, representing growth of approximately 19.8% to 30.2%.

Tailwinds

  • Sales in the range of approximately $4.290 billion to $4.330 billion, representing growth of approximately 4.0% to 5.0%.
  • Diluted EPS in the range of approximately $0.66 to $0.76.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.15 to $1.25, adjusted for items affecting comparability, representing growth of approximately 19.8% to 30.2%.
  • Portfolio and supply chain optimization benefit of $10 million to $20 million.
  • Capital expenditures for the year in the range of $85 million to $95 million.

Headwinds

  • Depreciation and amortization in the range of $145 million to $150 million.
  • Net interest expense of approximately $11 million.
  • An effective tax rate of approximately 24.0% to 24.5%.
  • Weighted average diluted share count for the year of approximately 212.5 million shares.
  • Balancing higher demand with increased costs and uncertainty.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.5%
Q4 2025-8.7%-12.9%-22.6%
Q3 2025+1.9%-1.2%-7.5%
Q2 2025-5.3%-5.2%-17.1%
Q1 2025+1.5%-3.3%-6.4%
Q4 2024-1.3%-4.8%+0.3%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.8%-0.4%
Q2 2024+1.5%+1.8%+2.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.9%-12.5%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.3%-0.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-4.7%-2.0%
Q2 2023+3.9%+0.5%-7.2%
Q1 2023-9.2%-9.1%-12.9%
Q4 2022+0.2%+0.4%-0.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.6%-3.2%
Q1 2022+4.5%+5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.5%-13.9%
Q3 2021+2.3%+5.3%+1.7%
Q2 2021+5.7%+9.3%+2.3%
Q1 2021-2.1%-2.3%-3.8%
Q4 2020-0.1%-1.5%+3.0%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2020+2.3%+4.4%+3.4%
Q1 2020+1.6%+3.3%-1.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+2.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.0%+3.6%
Q2 2019-4.7%-7.0%-5.5%
Q1 2019+7.1%+7.8%+9.6%
Q4 2018+1.5%+0.6%+1.6%
Q3 2018-1.1%+5.5%+0.8%
Q2 2018-6.0%-6.1%-1.5%
Q1 2018-10.2%-10.9%-5.6%
Q4 2017+5.6%+7.9%+13.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.6%+13.2%
Q2 2017+0.0%+3.5%+2.0%
Q1 2017-6.6%-5.0%-9.9%
Q4 2016-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
Q3 2016-0.5%+3.5%+23.3%
Q2 2016-15.8%-14.0%-17.7%
Q1 2016+1.5%
Q4 2015-17.5%
Q3 2015-12.8%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+10.8%
Q3 2014-2.2%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.9%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013-2.0%
Q4 2012+1.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012-4.0%
Q1 2012+6.7%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-11.7%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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