NYSE$FLO

Flowers Foods · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported solid fourth quarter performance and record sales and operating cash flow for the full year.

Flowers Foods reported a 4.2% increase in sales to $917.8 million for the fourth quarter. Diluted EPS decreased to $0.01, while adjusted diluted EPS increased to $0.18. The company saw growth from key brands and made progress in portfolio and supply chain optimization.

  • Sales increased 4.2% to $917.8 million; excluding the acquisition of Canyon Bakehouse, net sales increased 1.2%.
  • Diluted EPS decreased $0.09 to $0.01.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS increased $0.02 to $0.18.
  • Branded retail sales increased $29.0 million, or 5.5%, to $551.7 million

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$918M

Previous: $881M+4.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.18

Previous: $0.16+12.5%
Sales Volume Change

-0.9%

No prior period
Sales Pricing/Mix Change

2.1%

No prior period
Sales Acquisition Change

3.0%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$33.1M

Previous: $24.4M+35.4%
Free Cash Flow

$55.8M

Previous: $39.4M+41.6%
Net Income

$2.22M

Previous: $20.8M-89.4%
Operating Income

$3.86M

Previous: $30M-87.1%
Gross Profit

$432M

Previous: $414M+4.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$11M

Previous: $25.3M-56.4%
Total Assets

$3.18B

Previous: $2.85B+11.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.6M

Previous: $1.26M+27.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Flowers Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$918M

Q4 2019+4.2%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Flowers Foods · $552M total across 1 segment · Q4 2019

  • Branded Retail
    $552M

Forward guidance

For the 53-week fiscal 2020, the company expects sales in the range of approximately $4.206 billion to $4.289 billion, representing growth of approximately 2.0% to 4.0%. Diluted EPS is expected in the range of approximately $0.50 to $0.64, and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.00 to $1.08, representing growth of approximately 4.2% to 12.5%.

Tailwinds

  • Sales growth in-line with long-term targets
  • Strength of national brands
  • Expected stabilization and growth of foodservice business
  • Expected stabilization and growth of cake businesses
  • Earnings growth driven by manufacturing efficiencies

Headwinds

  • Pension plan settlement loss
  • Fluctuations in commodity pricing
  • Energy and raw material costs and availability
  • Increasing legal complexity
  • Failure of information technology systems

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.5%+11.7%+11.3%
Q4 2025-8.7%-12.9%-22.6%
Q3 2025+1.9%-1.2%-7.5%
Q2 2025-5.3%-5.2%-17.1%
Q1 2025+1.5%-3.3%-6.4%
Q4 2024-1.3%-4.8%+0.3%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.8%-0.4%
Q2 2024+1.5%+1.8%+2.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.9%-12.5%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.3%-0.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-4.7%-2.0%
Q2 2023+3.9%+0.5%-7.2%
Q1 2023-9.2%-9.1%-12.9%
Q4 2022+0.2%+0.4%-0.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.6%-3.2%
Q1 2022+4.5%+5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.5%-13.9%
Q3 2021+2.3%+5.3%+1.7%
Q2 2021+5.7%+9.3%+2.3%
Q1 2021-2.1%-2.3%-3.8%
Q4 2020-0.1%-1.5%+3.0%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2020+2.3%+4.4%+3.4%
Q1 2020+1.6%+3.3%-1.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+2.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.0%+3.6%
Q2 2019-4.7%-7.0%-5.5%
Q1 2019+7.1%+7.8%+9.6%
Q4 2018+1.5%+0.6%+1.6%
Q3 2018-1.1%+5.5%+0.8%
Q2 2018-6.0%-6.1%-1.5%
Q1 2018-10.2%-10.9%-5.6%
Q4 2017+5.6%+7.9%+13.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.6%+13.2%
Q2 2017+0.0%+3.5%+2.0%
Q1 2017-6.6%-5.0%-9.9%
Q4 2016-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
Q3 2016-0.5%+3.5%+23.3%
Q2 2016-15.8%-14.0%-17.7%
Q1 2016+1.5%
Q4 2015-17.5%
Q3 2015-12.8%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+10.8%
Q3 2014-2.2%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.9%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013-2.0%
Q4 2012+1.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012-4.0%
Q1 2012+6.7%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-11.7%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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