NYSE$FLO

Flowers Foods · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Flowers Foods reported Q4 2020 results with increased sales and net income.

Flowers Foods reported an 11.5% increase in sales to $1.023 billion and a significant increase in net income to $55.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2020. The company's performance was driven by a positive mix shift towards branded retail products and the contribution of an additional week in the fiscal calendar.

  • Sales increased by 11.5% to $1.023 billion, with an 8.2% contribution from the additional week.
  • Net income rose to $55.8 million, a $53.6 million increase from the prior year.
  • Adjusted net income increased by 55.3% to $59.1 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 34.3% to $113.5 million, representing 11.1% of sales.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.02B

Previous: $918M+11.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.28

Previous: $0.18+55.6%
Sales Volume Change

-4.4%

Previous: -0.9%-388.9%
Sales Pricing/Mix Change

7.7%

Previous: 2.1%+266.7%
Net Income

$55.8M

Previous: $2.22M+2415.7%
Operating Income

$77.4M

Previous: $3.86M+1905.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Flowers Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.02B

Q4 2020+11.5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Flowers Foods · $676M total across 1 segment · Q4 2020

  • Branded Retail
    $676M+22.5%

Forward guidance

For the 52-week Fiscal 2021, the company expects sales in the range of approximately $4.212 billion to $4.300 billion, representing a change of approximately -4.0% to -2.0%. Diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of approximately $1.07 to $1.17.

Tailwinds

  • Benefits from brand investments
  • Continued savings from portfolio optimization
  • Continued savings from operational efficiencies
  • Depreciation and amortization in the range of $133 million to $138 million
  • Net interest expense of approximately $12 million

Headwinds

  • Expectation of some mix reversion during the year as the impact of the pandemic dissipates
  • Potential for a higher promotional environment
  • Back-half commodity headwinds
  • Investment to implement our digital initiative
  • An effective tax rate of approximately 24.0% to 24.5%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.5%+11.7%+11.3%
Q4 2025-8.7%-12.9%-22.6%
Q3 2025+1.9%-1.2%-7.5%
Q2 2025-5.3%-5.2%-17.1%
Q1 2025+1.5%-3.3%-6.4%
Q4 2024-1.3%-4.8%+0.3%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.8%-0.4%
Q2 2024+1.5%+1.8%+2.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.9%-12.5%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.3%-0.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-4.7%-2.0%
Q2 2023+3.9%+0.5%-7.2%
Q1 2023-9.2%-9.1%-12.9%
Q4 2022+0.2%+0.4%-0.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.6%-3.2%
Q1 2022+4.5%+5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.5%-13.9%
Q3 2021+2.3%+5.3%+1.7%
Q2 2021+5.7%+9.3%+2.3%
Q1 2021-2.1%-2.3%-3.8%
Q4 2020-0.1%-1.5%+3.0%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2020+2.3%+4.4%+3.4%
Q1 2020+1.6%+3.3%-1.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+2.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.0%+3.6%
Q2 2019-4.7%-7.0%-5.5%
Q1 2019+7.1%+7.8%+9.6%
Q4 2018+1.5%+0.6%+1.6%
Q3 2018-1.1%+5.5%+0.8%
Q2 2018-6.0%-6.1%-1.5%
Q1 2018-10.2%-10.9%-5.6%
Q4 2017+5.6%+7.9%+13.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.6%+13.2%
Q2 2017+0.0%+3.5%+2.0%
Q1 2017-6.6%-5.0%-9.9%
Q4 2016-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
Q3 2016-0.5%+3.5%+23.3%
Q2 2016-15.8%-14.0%-17.7%
Q1 2016+1.5%
Q4 2015-17.5%
Q3 2015-12.8%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+10.8%
Q3 2014-2.2%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.9%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013-2.0%
Q4 2012+1.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012-4.0%
Q1 2012+6.7%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-11.7%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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