NYSE$FLO

Flowers Foods · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Flowers Foods reported third quarter 2023 results with record sales and a net loss due to increased legal settlement expense.

Flowers Foods reported a 3.5% increase in sales to a record $1.199 billion for the third quarter of 2023. However, the company experienced a net loss of $46.7 million due to increased legal settlement expenses, despite an increase in adjusted EBITDA by 0.6% to $121.2 million.

  • Sales increased 3.5% to a third-quarter record of $1.199 billion.
  • Net income decreased $87.3 million, resulting in a net loss of $46.7 million, primarily due to increased legal settlement expense.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 0.6% to $121.2 million, representing 10.1% of sales.
  • Diluted EPS decreased $0.41 to a loss of $0.22, while adjusted diluted EPS decreased $0.01 to $0.29.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.2B

Previous: $1.16B+3.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.29

Previous: $0.30-3.3%
Sales Volume Change

-4.1%

Previous: -5.1%+19.6%
Sales Pricing/Mix Change

6.3%

Previous: 17.8%-64.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$97M

Previous: -$128M+24.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$144M

Previous: -$87.8M-63.6%
Net Income

-$46.7M

Previous: $40.5M-215.3%
Operating Income

-$59.3M

Previous: $55.5M-207.0%
Gross Profit

$582M

Previous: $543M+7.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$14.6M

Previous: $173M-91.6%
Total Assets

$3.43B

Previous: $3.34B+2.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.88M

Previous: $5.49M+7.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Flowers Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.2B

Q3 2023+3.5%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Flowers Foods · $771M total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Branded Retail
    $771M+3.0%

Forward guidance

For the 52-week Fiscal 2023, the company expects sales in the range of approximately $5.085 billion to $5.104 billion and Adjusted EBITDA in the range of approximately $495 million to $515 million. Diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.60 to $0.67, with adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.18 to $1.25.

Tailwinds

  • Sales in the range of approximately $5.085 billion to $5.104 billion, representing an increase of approximately 5.8% to 6.2% compared to the prior year period.
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of approximately $495 million to $515 million.
  • Diluted EPS in the range of $0.60 to $0.67.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.18 to $1.25.
  • Depreciation and amortization in the range of $150 million to $155 million.

Headwinds

  • Prior guidance called for sales of approximately $5.095 billion to $5.141 billion, representing an increase of approximately 6.0% to 7.0% compared to the prior year period.
  • Prior guidance of Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $503 million to $528 million.
  • Capital expenditures in the range of $135 million to $145 million, with $25 million to $35 million related to the ERP upgrade.
  • Prior guidance of Capital expenditures in the range of $145 million to $155 million, with $30 million to $40 million related to the ERP upgrade.
  • Net interest expense of approximately $16 million to $18 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.5%+11.7%+11.3%
Q4 2025-8.7%-12.9%-22.6%
Q3 2025+1.9%-1.2%-7.5%
Q2 2025-5.3%-5.2%-17.1%
Q1 2025+1.5%-3.3%-6.4%
Q4 2024-1.3%-4.8%+0.3%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.8%-0.4%
Q2 2024+1.5%+1.8%+2.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.9%-12.5%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.3%-0.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-4.7%-2.0%
Q2 2023+3.9%+0.5%-7.2%
Q1 2023-9.2%-9.1%-12.9%
Q4 2022+0.2%+0.4%-0.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.6%-3.2%
Q1 2022+4.5%+5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.5%-13.9%
Q3 2021+2.3%+5.3%+1.7%
Q2 2021+5.7%+9.3%+2.3%
Q1 2021-2.1%-2.3%-3.8%
Q4 2020-0.1%-1.5%+3.0%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2020+2.3%+4.4%+3.4%
Q1 2020+1.6%+3.3%-1.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+2.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.0%+3.6%
Q2 2019-4.7%-7.0%-5.5%
Q1 2019+7.1%+7.8%+9.6%
Q4 2018+1.5%+0.6%+1.6%
Q3 2018-1.1%+5.5%+0.8%
Q2 2018-6.0%-6.1%-1.5%
Q1 2018-10.2%-10.9%-5.6%
Q4 2017+5.6%+7.9%+13.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.6%+13.2%
Q2 2017+0.0%+3.5%+2.0%
Q1 2017-6.6%-5.0%-9.9%
Q4 2016-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
Q3 2016-0.5%+3.5%+23.3%
Q2 2016-15.8%-14.0%-17.7%
Q1 2016+1.5%
Q4 2015-17.5%
Q3 2015-12.8%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+10.8%
Q3 2014-2.2%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.9%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013-2.0%
Q4 2012+1.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012-4.0%
Q1 2012+6.7%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-11.7%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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