NYSE$FLO

Flowers Foods · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Flowers Foods reported increased sales and net income in Q3 2020, driven by a favorable operating environment for its branded retail business.

Flowers Foods reported a 2.4% increase in sales to $989.7 million and a 2.3% increase in net income to $44.3 million for the third quarter of 2020. The company benefited from increased in-home eating and executed its portfolio strategy and supply chain optimization initiatives.

  • Sales increased 2.4% to $989.7 million.
  • Net income increased 2.3% to $44.3 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 22.4% to $116.4 million, representing 11.8% of sales.
  • Diluted EPS increased $0.01 to $0.21.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$990M

Previous: $967M+2.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.29

Previous: $0.22+31.8%
Sales Volume Change

-5.7%

No prior period
Sales Pricing/Mix Change

8.1%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$68.3M

Previous: -$70.6M+3.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$23.9M

Previous: -$27.3M+12.2%
Net Income

$44.3M

Previous: $43.4M+2.3%
Operating Income

$53M

Previous: $58.7M-9.7%
Gross Profit

$492M

Previous: $458M+7.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$326M

Previous: $6.97M+4576.1%
Total Assets

$3.39B

Previous: $3.21B+5.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.83M

Previous: $1.52M+86.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Flowers Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$990M

Q3 2020+2.4%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Flowers Foods · $657M total across 1 segment · Q3 2020

  • Branded Retail
    $657M+12.2%

Forward guidance

For the 53-week Fiscal 2020, the Company Expects: Sales in the range of approximately $4.350 billion to $4.370 billion, representing growth of approximately 5.5% to 6.0%. Diluted EPS in the range of approximately $0.65 to $0.70. Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.23 to $1.28, adjusted for items affecting comparability, representing annual growth of approximately 28.1% to 33.3%.

Tailwinds

  • Sales in the range of approximately $4.350 billion to $4.370 billion, representing growth of approximately 5.5% to 6.0%.
  • Diluted EPS in the range of approximately $0.65 to $0.70.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.23 to $1.28, adjusted for items affecting comparability, representing annual growth of approximately 28.1% to 33.3%.
  • Portfolio and supply chain optimization benefit in excess of $20 million.
  • Depreciation and amortization in the range of $140 million to $145 million.

Headwinds

  • Net interest expense of approximately $11 million
  • An effective tax rate of approximately 24.0% to 24.5%
  • Weighted average diluted share count for the year of approximately 212.5 million shares
  • Capital expenditures for the year in the range of $85 million to $95 million
  • No specific negatives were mentioned.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.5%+11.7%+11.3%
Q4 2025-8.7%-12.9%-22.6%
Q3 2025+1.9%-1.2%-7.5%
Q2 2025-5.3%-5.2%-17.1%
Q1 2025+1.5%-3.3%-6.4%
Q4 2024-1.3%-4.8%+0.3%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.8%-0.4%
Q2 2024+1.5%+1.8%+2.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.9%-12.5%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.3%-0.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-4.7%-2.0%
Q2 2023+3.9%+0.5%-7.2%
Q1 2023-9.2%-9.1%-12.9%
Q4 2022+0.2%+0.4%-0.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.6%-3.2%
Q1 2022+4.5%+5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.5%-13.9%
Q3 2021+2.3%+5.3%+1.7%
Q2 2021+5.7%+9.3%+2.3%
Q1 2021-2.1%-2.3%-3.8%
Q4 2020-0.1%-1.5%+3.0%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2020+2.3%+4.4%+3.4%
Q1 2020+1.6%+3.3%-1.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+2.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.0%+3.6%
Q2 2019-4.7%-7.0%-5.5%
Q1 2019+7.1%+7.8%+9.6%
Q4 2018+1.5%+0.6%+1.6%
Q3 2018-1.1%+5.5%+0.8%
Q2 2018-6.0%-6.1%-1.5%
Q1 2018-10.2%-10.9%-5.6%
Q4 2017+5.6%+7.9%+13.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.6%+13.2%
Q2 2017+0.0%+3.5%+2.0%
Q1 2017-6.6%-5.0%-9.9%
Q4 2016-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
Q3 2016-0.5%+3.5%+23.3%
Q2 2016-15.8%-14.0%-17.7%
Q1 2016+1.5%
Q4 2015-17.5%
Q3 2015-12.8%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+10.8%
Q3 2014-2.2%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.9%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013-2.0%
Q4 2012+1.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012-4.0%
Q1 2012+6.7%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-11.7%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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