NYSE$FLO

Flowers Foods · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Flowers Foods' Q1 2021 financial performance reflected a decrease in sales but an increase in net income, driven by strategic investments and operational efficiencies.

Flowers Foods reported a decrease in sales by 3.5% to $1.302 billion compared to the prior year, which was impacted by the pandemic. Net income increased significantly to $71.7 million due to a prior year charge related to pension plan termination. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.41, consistent with the prior year.

  • Sales decreased by 3.5% to $1.302 billion due to moderated branded retail mix and foodservice recovery as the economy reopened.
  • Net income increased to $71.7 million, primarily due to a $116.2 million charge in the prior year related to pension plan termination.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly by 1.0% to $161.6 million, representing 12.4% of sales.
  • Branded retail sales decreased by 3.3% to $861.4 million, while non-retail and other sales increased by 3.6% to $277.9 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.3B

Previous: $1.35B-3.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.41

Previous: $0.41+0.0%
Sales Volume Change

-6.9%

Previous: 0.6%-1250.0%
Sales Pricing/Mix Change

3.4%

Previous: 6.2%-45.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$27.3M

Previous: -$21.7M-25.7%
Free Cash Flow

$44.4M

Previous: -$27.5M+261.5%
Net Income

$71.7M

Previous: -$5.77M+1341.4%
Operating Income

$115M

Previous: $112M+2.9%
Gross Profit

$659M

Previous: $679M-2.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$251M

Previous: $253M-0.8%
Total Assets

$3.27B

Previous: $3.41B-4.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Flowers Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.3B

Q1 2021-3.5%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Flowers Foods · $861M total across 1 segment · Q1 2021

  • Branded Retail
    $861M-3.4%

Forward guidance

For the 52-week fiscal year 2021, Flowers Foods expects sales to range from approximately $4.234 billion to $4.300 billion, representing a change of approximately -3.5% to -2.0%. Diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of approximately $1.10 to $1.17.

Tailwinds

  • Sales expected to be in the range of $4.234 billion to $4.300 billion.
  • Diluted EPS expected to be in the range of $1.10 to $1.17.
  • Depreciation and amortization in the range of $135 million to $140 million.
  • Net interest expense of approximately $10 million.
  • Weighted average diluted share count for the year of approximately 213 million shares.

Headwinds

  • Sales change includes a 1.8% reduction due to one fewer week in fiscal 2021.
  • One fewer week in fiscal 2021 impacts EPS by approximately $0.02.
  • Effective tax rate of approximately 24.5%.
  • Capital expenditures for the year in the range of $140 million to $150 million.
  • Sales are expected to decrease compared to the previous year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.5%+11.7%+11.3%
Q4 2025-8.7%-12.9%-22.6%
Q3 2025+1.9%-1.2%-7.5%
Q2 2025-5.3%-5.2%-17.1%
Q1 2025+1.5%-3.3%-6.4%
Q4 2024-1.3%-4.8%+0.3%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.8%-0.4%
Q2 2024+1.5%+1.8%+2.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.9%-12.5%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.3%-0.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-4.7%-2.0%
Q2 2023+3.9%+0.5%-7.2%
Q1 2023-9.2%-9.1%-12.9%
Q4 2022+0.2%+0.4%-0.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.6%-3.2%
Q1 2022+4.5%+5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.5%-13.9%
Q3 2021+2.3%+5.3%+1.7%
Q2 2021+5.7%+9.3%+2.3%
Q1 2021-2.1%-2.3%-3.8%
Q4 2020-0.1%-1.5%+3.0%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2020+2.3%+4.4%+3.4%
Q1 2020+1.6%+3.3%-1.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+2.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.0%+3.6%
Q2 2019-4.7%-7.0%-5.5%
Q1 2019+7.1%+7.8%+9.6%
Q4 2018+1.5%+0.6%+1.6%
Q3 2018-1.1%+5.5%+0.8%
Q2 2018-6.0%-6.1%-1.5%
Q1 2018-10.2%-10.9%-5.6%
Q4 2017+5.6%+7.9%+13.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.6%+13.2%
Q2 2017+0.0%+3.5%+2.0%
Q1 2017-6.6%-5.0%-9.9%
Q4 2016-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
Q3 2016-0.5%+3.5%+23.3%
Q2 2016-15.8%-14.0%-17.7%
Q1 2016+1.5%
Q4 2015-17.5%
Q3 2015-12.8%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+10.8%
Q3 2014-2.2%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.9%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013-2.0%
Q4 2012+1.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012-4.0%
Q1 2012+6.7%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-11.7%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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