NYSE$FLO

Flowers Foods · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Flowers Foods reported record second-quarter sales driven by portfolio strategy and team execution.

Flowers Foods reported an 8.8% increase in sales, reaching a second-quarter record of $1.228 billion. Net income increased by 18.8% to $63.8 million, with diluted EPS increasing to $0.30. The company is adjusting its fiscal 2023 guidance to reflect this strong performance.

  • Sales increased by 8.8% to a second quarter-record $1.228 billion.
  • Net income increased 18.8% to $63.8 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 10.9% to $133.1 million, representing 10.8% of sales.
  • Diluted EPS increased $0.05 to $0.30.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.23B

Previous: $1.13B+8.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.33

Previous: $0.31+6.5%
Sales Volume Change

-6.1%

Previous: -3.4%-79.4%
Sales Pricing/Mix Change

13.3%

Previous: 14.4%-7.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$68.4M

Previous: -$97.9M+30.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$4.63M

Previous: -$44.2M+89.5%
Net Income

$63.8M

Previous: $53.7M+18.8%
Operating Income

$88.6M

Previous: $71.7M+23.5%
Gross Profit

$602M

Previous: $543M+10.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$11.7M

Previous: $163M-92.8%
Total Assets

$3.51B

Previous: $3.34B+4.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.66M

Previous: $5.56M+1.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Flowers Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.23B

Q2 2023+8.8%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Flowers Foods · $788M total across 1 segment · Q2 2023

  • Branded Retail
    $788M+7.0%

Forward guidance

For the 52-week Fiscal 2023, the Company expects sales in the range of approximately $5.095 billion to $5.141 billion, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of approximately $503 million to $528 million, and Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.18 to $1.25.

Tailwinds

  • Sales in the range of approximately $5.095 billion to $5.141 billion, representing an increase of approximately 6.0% to 7.0% compared to the prior year period.
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of approximately $503 million to $528 million, compared to prior guidance of $494 million to $528 million.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of approximately $1.18 to $1.25, compared to prior guidance of $1.15 to $1.25.
  • Depreciation and amortization in the range of $155 million to $160 million, compared to prior guidance of $160 million to $165 million
  • An effective tax rate of approximately 24%, compared to prior guidance of approximately 25%

Headwinds

  • Net interest expense of approximately $16 million to $18 million, compared to prior guidance of $9 million to $13 million
  • Weighted average diluted share count for the year of approximately 213 million shares
  • Capital expenditures in the range of $145 million to $155 million, with $30 million to $40 million related to the ERP upgrade, compared to prior guidance of $140 million to $150 million
  • Consumers continue to seek value, though we are seeing some early indications that they may be acclimating to higher prices and reverting toward prior purchasing behavior.
  • Disruptions in our direct-store-delivery distribution model, including litigation or an adverse ruling by a court or regulatory or governmental body that could affect the independent contractor classifications of the independent distributor partners

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

26 / 65 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2014

Best reaction

-17.5%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.5%+11.7%+11.3%
Q4 2025-8.7%-12.9%-22.6%
Q3 2025+1.9%-1.2%-7.5%
Q2 2025-5.3%-5.2%-17.1%
Q1 2025+1.5%-3.3%-6.4%
Q4 2024-1.3%-4.8%+0.3%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.8%-0.4%
Q2 2024+1.5%+1.8%+2.3%
Q1 2024-4.2%-4.9%-12.5%
Q4 2023-4.2%-4.3%-0.9%
Q3 2023-6.9%-4.7%-2.0%
Q2 2023+3.9%+0.5%-7.2%
Q1 2023-9.2%-9.1%-12.9%
Q4 2022+0.2%+0.4%-0.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.6%-3.2%
Q1 2022+4.5%+5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2021-1.2%-0.5%-13.9%
Q3 2021+2.3%+5.3%+1.7%
Q2 2021+5.7%+9.3%+2.3%
Q1 2021-2.1%-2.3%-3.8%
Q4 2020-0.1%-1.5%+3.0%
Q3 2020-2.4%-6.9%-7.2%
Q2 2020+2.3%+4.4%+3.4%
Q1 2020+1.6%+3.3%-1.0%
Q4 2019+0.4%+2.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019-1.1%+0.0%+3.6%
Q2 2019-4.7%-7.0%-5.5%
Q1 2019+7.1%+7.8%+9.6%
Q4 2018+1.5%+0.6%+1.6%
Q3 2018-1.1%+5.5%+0.8%
Q2 2018-6.0%-6.1%-1.5%
Q1 2018-10.2%-10.9%-5.6%
Q4 2017+5.6%+7.9%+13.4%
Q3 2017+2.6%+5.6%+13.2%
Q2 2017+0.0%+3.5%+2.0%
Q1 2017-6.6%-5.0%-9.9%
Q4 2016-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
Q3 2016-0.5%+3.5%+23.3%
Q2 2016-15.8%-14.0%-17.7%
Q1 2016+1.5%
Q4 2015-17.5%
Q3 2015-12.8%
Q2 2015+6.4%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014+10.8%
Q3 2014-2.2%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014+3.0%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.9%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013-2.0%
Q4 2012+1.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012-4.0%
Q1 2012+6.7%
Q4 2009+1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-11.7%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.2%
Q4 2010+0.2%
Q1 2010-0.1%

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