NYSE$BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peabody Energy reported record earnings and retired all senior secured debt.

Peabody Energy reported a net income of $632.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2022, with record free cash flow of $580 million. The company retired all remaining senior secured debt and is actively addressing the requirements to implement a shareholder return program.

  • Retired all senior secured debt
  • Generated record Free Cash Flow of $580 million
  • Achieved Adjusted EBITDA of $501 million
  • Attained highest 2022 quarterly production rate in three out of four operating segments

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.63B

Previous: $1.26B+28.6%
EPS (adj)

$3.89

Previous: $3.90-0.3%
Seaborne Thermal Revenue/Ton

$93.79

Previous: $65.71+42.7%
Seaborne Metallurgical Revenue/Ton

$219.81

Previous: $211.19+4.1%
PRB Revenue/Ton

$13.88

Previous: $10.99+26.3%
Other U.S. Thermal Revenue/Ton

$52.35

Previous: $42.23+24.0%
Capital Expenditures

$222M

Previous: $183M+21.0%
Free Cash Flow

$580M

Previous: $427M+35.9%
Net Income

$646M

Previous: $512M+26.1%
Operating Income

$582M

Previous: $521M+11.8%
Gross Profit

$698M

Previous: $555M+25.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.31B

Previous: $954M+37.0%
Total Assets

$5.61B

Previous: $4.95B+13.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.8M

Previous: $4.4M-59.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Peabody Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.63B

Q4 2022+28.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peabody Energy · $1.63B total across 5 segments · Q4 2022

  • Seaborne Metallurgical
    $451M+32.8%
  • Seaborne Thermal
    $386M+27.6%
  • Powder River Basin
    $294M+19.0%
  • Other U.S. Thermal
    $263M+36.1%
  • Corporate and Other
    $232M+27.4%

Forward guidance

Peabody provided the following outlook for Q1 2023:

Tailwinds

  • PRB volume is expected to be approximately 22 million tons at an average price of $13.80 per ton and cost of approximately $11.60 per ton.
  • Other U.S. Thermal volume is expected to be approximately 4.7 million tons at an average price of $52.50 per ton and cost of approximately $40 per ton.

Headwinds

  • Export volume is expected to be 1.8 million tons, less than ratable to full-year guidance, due to lower production as a result of a longwall move at Wambo Underground and recovery from heavy rains in the fourth quarter.
  • Costs are expected to be $60-$65 per ton for Seaborne Thermal.
  • Seaborne met volumes are expected to be 1.3-1.5 million tons, less than ratable to full-year guidance due to heavy rains in Queensland and geologic conditions at Shoal Creek.
  • Costs are expected to be $140-$150 per ton for Seaborne Metallurgical.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

14 / 36 earnings

Positive

+25.2%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-29.0%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2025———
Q1 2026-1.8%-11.0%+17.7%
Q4 2025-2.2%+2.7%-8.3%
Q3 2025-4.7%+8.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025+9.2%+5.6%-2.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-3.8%-30.6%
Q3 2024+7.2%+10.2%-3.4%
Q2 2024-0.8%-3.7%+5.4%
Q1 2024+2.8%+2.3%+15.6%
Q4 2023-2.5%-4.4%+4.7%
Q3 2023+0.6%-4.4%-2.8%
Q2 2023-3.7%-0.7%-4.5%
Q1 2023+2.6%-0.3%-20.3%
Q4 2022+12.1%+7.3%-11.2%
Q3 2022+16.2%+27.5%+36.0%
Q2 2022-8.0%-14.7%+21.8%
Q1 2022-14.6%-18.8%-5.2%
Q4 2021+25.2%+26.6%+69.4%
Q3 2021-8.9%-11.8%-19.5%
Q2 2021+8.7%+5.8%+44.8%
Q1 2021-13.8%-3.3%+54.5%
Q4 2020-17.9%-14.3%-7.6%
Q3 2020-29.0%-10.3%+26.5%
Q2 2020-14.3%-10.5%-14.3%
Q1 2020+13.0%+8.0%+5.0%
Q4 2019+20.8%+12.1%-37.2%
Q3 2019-26.2%-36.3%-39.5%
Q2 2019-15.9%-18.4%-16.7%
Q1 2019-4.1%+1.5%-18.2%
Q4 2018-13.8%-17.3%-14.5%
Q3 2018+4.6%+1.7%-8.1%
Q2 2018-0.5%+1.1%-2.9%
Q1 2018-3.1%-3.0%+9.1%
Q4 2017-7.2%-4.4%-5.0%
Q3 2017+3.0%+1.9%+8.9%
Q2 2017+7.7%+0.6%+3.4%
Q1 2017-4.4%-0.4%-6.7%
Q4 2016———
Q3 2016———
Q2 2016———
Q1 2016———
Q4 2015———
Q3 2015———
Q2 2015———
Q1 2015———
Q4 2014———
Q3 2014———
Q2 2014———
Q1 2014———
Q4 2013———
Q3 2013———
Q2 2013———
Q1 2013———
Q4 2012———
Q3 2012———
Q2 2012———
Q1 2012———
Q4 2011———
Q3 2011———
Q2 2011———
Q1 2011———
Q4 2007———
Q3 2010———
Q2 2010———
Q1 2009———
Q1 2010———
Q4 2008———
Q4 2009———
Q3 2009———
Q3 2008———
Q2 2008———
Q2 2009———

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