NYSE$BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peabody Energy reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $129.2 million and revenues of $737.2 million for Q4 2020.

Peabody Energy reported Q4 2020 revenues of $737.2 million, a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $129.2 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $103.2 million. The company faced challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but lowered costs per ton in three out of four segments and created a leaner corporate structure.

  • Q4 2020 revenues reached $737.2 million.
  • Net loss attributable to common stockholders was $129.2 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $103.2 million.
  • The company lowered costs per ton in three out of four segments.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$737M

Previous: $1.12B-34.0%
EPS (adj)

-$1.25

Previous: -$1.11-12.6%
Seaborne Thermal Revenue/Ton

$35.67

Previous: $45.97-22.4%
Seaborne Metallurgical Revenue/Ton

$83.94

Previous: $104.62-19.8%
PRB Revenue/Ton

$11.41

Previous: $11.81-3.4%
Other U.S. Thermal Revenue/Ton

$38.88

Previous: $20.00+94.4%
Capital Expenditures

$191M

Previous: $285M-32.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$169M

Previous: -$161M-5.2%
Net Income

-$128M

Previous: -$290M+56.0%
Operating Income

-$108M

Previous: -$166M+34.7%
Gross Profit

$99M

Previous: $292M-66.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$709M

Previous: $732M-3.1%
Total Assets

$4.67B

Previous: $6.54B-28.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.6M

Previous: $8.1M-55.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Peabody Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$737M

Q4 2020-34%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peabody Energy · $737M total across 5 segments · Q4 2020

  • Powder River Basin
    $254M-21.9%
  • Seaborne Thermal
    $186M-26.0%
  • Other U.S. Thermal
    $183M-45.9%
  • Seaborne Metallurgical
    $123M-39.0%
  • Corporate and Other
    -$8.5M-808.3%

Forward guidance

Peabody anticipates U.S. thermal coal deliveries to be dependent on economic conditions, weather, and natural gas prices. PRB volumes are expected to be in line with 2020, while other U.S. thermal shipments are planned to decline modestly. Seaborne thermal volumes are expected to increase slightly. Seaborne met shipments are expected to be modestly lower than 2020.

Tailwinds

  • PRB volumes expected to be in line with 2020 shipments, with about 80% of 2021 tons currently priced at an average of $10.82 per ton.
  • Other U.S. thermal shipments are planned to decline modestly from 2020 levels, with approximately 16 million tons priced at an average of approximately $37.50 per ton.
  • United Wambo JV began joint production from the open-cut mine, enabling continued production of a high-quality seaborne thermal product.
  • Wilpinjong export volumes are expected to be largely in line with 2020 levels, while Wambo underground improves modestly.
  • SG&A expense is expected to be further reduced to $90 million.

Headwinds

  • U.S. thermal coal deliveries are largely dependent on general economic conditions, weather, natural gas prices and utility inventory levels.
  • Other U.S. thermal shipments are planned to decline modestly from 2020 levels.
  • Peabody anticipates a slight increase in seaborne thermal costs from 2020 given lower volumes and higher expected royalties.
  • 2021 seaborne met shipments are expected to be modestly lower than 2020 volumes due to the timing of restarts, partly offset by slightly higher CMJV shipments.
  • First quarter 2021 results are expected to be lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 given reduced volumes across all segments.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

14 / 36 earnings

Positive

+25.2%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-29.0%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.8%-11.0%+17.7%
Q4 2025-2.2%+2.7%-8.3%
Q3 2025-4.7%+8.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025+9.2%+5.6%-2.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-3.8%-30.6%
Q3 2024+7.2%+10.2%-3.4%
Q2 2024-0.8%-3.7%+5.4%
Q1 2024+2.8%+2.3%+15.6%
Q4 2023-2.5%-4.4%+4.7%
Q3 2023+0.6%-4.4%-2.8%
Q2 2023-3.7%-0.7%-4.5%
Q1 2023+2.6%-0.3%-20.3%
Q4 2022+12.1%+7.3%-11.2%
Q3 2022+16.2%+27.5%+36.0%
Q2 2022-8.0%-14.7%+21.8%
Q1 2022-14.6%-18.8%-5.2%
Q4 2021+25.2%+26.6%+69.4%
Q3 2021-8.9%-11.8%-19.5%
Q2 2021+8.7%+5.8%+44.8%
Q1 2021-13.8%-3.3%+54.5%
Q4 2020-17.9%-14.3%-7.6%
Q3 2020-29.0%-10.3%+26.5%
Q2 2020-14.3%-10.5%-14.3%
Q1 2020+13.0%+8.0%+5.0%
Q4 2019+20.8%+12.1%-37.2%
Q3 2019-26.2%-36.3%-39.5%
Q2 2019-15.9%-18.4%-16.7%
Q1 2019-4.1%+1.5%-18.2%
Q4 2018-13.8%-17.3%-14.5%
Q3 2018+4.6%+1.7%-8.1%
Q2 2018-0.5%+1.1%-2.9%
Q1 2018-3.1%-3.0%+9.1%
Q4 2017-7.2%-4.4%-5.0%
Q3 2017+3.0%+1.9%+8.9%
Q2 2017+7.7%+0.6%+3.4%
Q1 2017-4.4%-0.4%-6.7%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2007
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q2 2009

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