NYSE$BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peabody Energy's Q3 2020 earnings were impacted by lower volumes, mix changes, and weaker seaborne pricing, but driven by strong cost performance within the thermal segments.

Peabody Energy reported a revenue of $671.0 million, a net loss of $67.2 million attributable to common stockholders, and an adjusted EBITDA of $95.4 million for Q3 2020. The company drove strong cost performance within their thermal segments, including record-low PRB costs per ton.

  • Third quarter revenues declined 39 percent year-over-year to $671.0 million.
  • Operating costs and expenses also fell by 39 percent, reflecting cost-saving initiatives and lower volumes.
  • The company reached a standstill agreement with its surety bond providers for the company’s $1.6 billion surety program.
  • Peabody expects to continue discussions with its revolving credit lenders and 2022 noteholders to effectuate a holistic transaction.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$671M

Previous: $1.11B-39.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.69

Previous: -$0.77+10.4%
Seaborne Thermal Revenue/Ton

$35.28

Previous: $51.06-30.9%
Seaborne Metallurgical Revenue/Ton

$71.88

Previous: $120.94-40.6%
PRB Revenue/Ton

$11.26

Previous: $11.02+2.2%
Other U.S. Thermal Revenue/Ton

$37.20

Previous: $45.45-18.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$67.2M

Previous: -$82.8M+18.8%
Net Income

-$67.2M

Previous: -$82.8M+18.8%
Operating Income

-$15.8M

Previous: -$36.8M+57.1%
Gross Profit

$120M

Previous: $200M-40.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$815M

Previous: $759M+7.3%
Total Assets

$4.86B

Previous: $6.79B-28.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.8M

Previous: $8.6M-55.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Peabody Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$671M

Q3 2020-39.4%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peabody Energy · $671M total across 5 segments · Q3 2020

  • Powder River Basin
    $265M-20.6%
  • Other U.S. Thermal
    $180M-44.9%
  • Seaborne Thermal
    $163M-34.7%
  • Seaborne Metallurgical
    $78.8M-63.6%
  • Corporate and Other
    -$15.4M+20.6%

Forward guidance

Fourth quarter seaborne volumes are expected to improve modestly, while U.S. thermal volumes are expected to decline slightly compared to the third quarter. Seaborne met costs are anticipated to rise primarily due to a planned longwall move at Metropolitan and changes in product mix, while seaborne thermal costs are expected to be largely in line with the third quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Current 2021 market expectations reflect improvement in seaborne coal demand as economies continue to recover from COVID-19.
  • Modestly higher forward natural gas prices are expected to offset the impact of additional retirements within the U.S. thermal market.
  • Sharing of production at the United Wambo joint venture is anticipated to begin later this year.
  • Middlemount is beginning to see the benefits of a recent change in management earlier this year, along with recognizing cost improvement initiatives.
  • Fourth quarter Middlemount volumes are fully committed amid improving customer demand.

Headwinds

  • Based on the company’s current outlook, it is probable that Peabody’s fourth quarter 2020 results will not be sufficient to meet the minimum required net leverage ratio as defined under the revolving credit agreement.
  • The additional collateral demands and probable financial covenant noncompliance under the revolving credit facility, requires that the company’s debt be reported as current on its balance sheet as of Sept. 30, 2020.
  • Further scaled back production and the workforce at Wambo Underground, including temporarily suspending production for 59 days during the third quarter in response to challenging demand conditions.
  • Temporarily idled Shoal Creek in early October to reset the cost structure of the mine.
  • Costs per ton in 2020 have been elevated due to a combination of weak demand, lower productivity rates, and poor geological conditions in the final H-panel.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

14 / 36 earnings

Positive

+25.2%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-29.0%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.8%-11.0%+17.7%
Q4 2025-2.2%+2.7%-8.3%
Q3 2025-4.7%+8.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025+9.2%+5.6%-2.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-3.8%-30.6%
Q3 2024+7.2%+10.2%-3.4%
Q2 2024-0.8%-3.7%+5.4%
Q1 2024+2.8%+2.3%+15.6%
Q4 2023-2.5%-4.4%+4.7%
Q3 2023+0.6%-4.4%-2.8%
Q2 2023-3.7%-0.7%-4.5%
Q1 2023+2.6%-0.3%-20.3%
Q4 2022+12.1%+7.3%-11.2%
Q3 2022+16.2%+27.5%+36.0%
Q2 2022-8.0%-14.7%+21.8%
Q1 2022-14.6%-18.8%-5.2%
Q4 2021+25.2%+26.6%+69.4%
Q3 2021-8.9%-11.8%-19.5%
Q2 2021+8.7%+5.8%+44.8%
Q1 2021-13.8%-3.3%+54.5%
Q4 2020-17.9%-14.3%-7.6%
Q3 2020-29.0%-10.3%+26.5%
Q2 2020-14.3%-10.5%-14.3%
Q1 2020+13.0%+8.0%+5.0%
Q4 2019+20.8%+12.1%-37.2%
Q3 2019-26.2%-36.3%-39.5%
Q2 2019-15.9%-18.4%-16.7%
Q1 2019-4.1%+1.5%-18.2%
Q4 2018-13.8%-17.3%-14.5%
Q3 2018+4.6%+1.7%-8.1%
Q2 2018-0.5%+1.1%-2.9%
Q1 2018-3.1%-3.0%+9.1%
Q4 2017-7.2%-4.4%-5.0%
Q3 2017+3.0%+1.9%+8.9%
Q2 2017+7.7%+0.6%+3.4%
Q1 2017-4.4%-0.4%-6.7%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2007
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q2 2009

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