NYSE$BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peabody Energy reported first quarter 2021 results, noting operational and productivity improvements and successful refinancing activities.

Peabody Energy's first quarter 2021 results included revenues of $651.3 million, a net loss from continuing operations of $77.7 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $61.1 million. The company focused on improving its seaborne metallurgical cost structure and capturing cash improvements.

  • Revenues totaled $651.3 million compared to $846.2 million in the prior year, impacted by lower volumes, pricing, and sales mix.
  • Loss from continuing operations, net of income taxes totaled $77.7 million compared to $129.3 million in the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA totaled $61.1 million compared to $36.8 million in the prior year.
  • The company generated $71 million of cash from operating activities and ended the quarter with $623.7 million of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$651M

Previous: $846M-23.0%
EPS (adj)

-$0.79

Previous: -$1.31+39.7%
Seaborne Thermal Revenue/Ton

$43.36

Previous: $44.10-1.7%
Seaborne Metallurgical Revenue/Ton

$87.47

Previous: $95.65-8.6%
PRB Revenue/Ton

$11.01

Previous: $11.36-3.1%
Other U.S. Thermal Revenue/Ton

$38.76

Previous: $39.25-1.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$80.1M

Previous: -$130M+38.2%
Net Income

-$80.1M

Previous: -$130M+38.2%
Operating Income

-$40.8M

Previous: -$93.5M+56.4%
Gross Profit

$68.7M

Previous: $66.7M+3.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$580M

Previous: $683M-15.0%
Total Assets

$4.49B

Previous: $6.23B-28.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.8M

Previous: $2.2M-18.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Peabody Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$651M

Q1 2021-23%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peabody Energy · $651M total across 5 segments · Q1 2021

  • Powder River Basin
    $228M-14.3%
  • Seaborne Thermal
    $176M-12.3%
  • Other U.S. Thermal
    $149M-22.4%
  • Seaborne Metallurgical
    $87.5M-54.7%
  • Corporate and Other
    $9.7M+238.6%

Forward guidance

Peabody anticipates volumes and costs will progressively improve throughout the year as the company’s mines continued to safely operate throughout the quarter. Second quarter 2021 results are expected to be largely in line with the first quarter based on current pricing levels.

Tailwinds

  • PRB volumes remain largely in line with 2020 volumes, with more than 95 percent of 2021 tons currently priced at an average price of $10.98 per ton.
  • Other U.S. thermal shipments are expected to be approximately 16 million tons, priced at an estimated average price of $39 per ton.
  • Based on expected production levels, Peabody anticipates PRB and other U.S. thermal costs per ton to be largely in line with 2020 levels.
  • For the full year, seaborne thermal volumes are expected to be approximately 17 million tons, including 7-8 million domestic tons.
  • Due to productivity improvements and increased customer demand, CMJV volumes are expected to be higher than 2020 volumes.

Headwinds

  • U.S. thermal coal deliveries are largely dependent on general economic conditions, weather, natural gas prices and utility inventory levels.
  • Seaborne thermal costs per ton are expected to increase compared to 2020 levels given lower volumes, higher expected royalties and currently unfavorable exchange rates.
  • Prices for Australian hard coking coal continues to be impacted by the China ban on Australian coal, in addition to increased COVID concerns in India.
  • Prices for low-vol PCI are at parity with Australian hard coking coal as tight supply and China paying premiums for Russian coals have resulted in higher prices.
  • Previous SG&A expense guidance has been revised down $5 million to $85 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

14 / 36 earnings

Positive

+25.2%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-29.0%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.8%-11.0%+17.7%
Q4 2025-2.2%+2.7%-8.3%
Q3 2025-4.7%+8.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025+9.2%+5.6%-2.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-3.8%-30.6%
Q3 2024+7.2%+10.2%-3.4%
Q2 2024-0.8%-3.7%+5.4%
Q1 2024+2.8%+2.3%+15.6%
Q4 2023-2.5%-4.4%+4.7%
Q3 2023+0.6%-4.4%-2.8%
Q2 2023-3.7%-0.7%-4.5%
Q1 2023+2.6%-0.3%-20.3%
Q4 2022+12.1%+7.3%-11.2%
Q3 2022+16.2%+27.5%+36.0%
Q2 2022-8.0%-14.7%+21.8%
Q1 2022-14.6%-18.8%-5.2%
Q4 2021+25.2%+26.6%+69.4%
Q3 2021-8.9%-11.8%-19.5%
Q2 2021+8.7%+5.8%+44.8%
Q1 2021-13.8%-3.3%+54.5%
Q4 2020-17.9%-14.3%-7.6%
Q3 2020-29.0%-10.3%+26.5%
Q2 2020-14.3%-10.5%-14.3%
Q1 2020+13.0%+8.0%+5.0%
Q4 2019+20.8%+12.1%-37.2%
Q3 2019-26.2%-36.3%-39.5%
Q2 2019-15.9%-18.4%-16.7%
Q1 2019-4.1%+1.5%-18.2%
Q4 2018-13.8%-17.3%-14.5%
Q3 2018+4.6%+1.7%-8.1%
Q2 2018-0.5%+1.1%-2.9%
Q1 2018-3.1%-3.0%+9.1%
Q4 2017-7.2%-4.4%-5.0%
Q3 2017+3.0%+1.9%+8.9%
Q2 2017+7.7%+0.6%+3.4%
Q1 2017-4.4%-0.4%-6.7%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2007
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q2 2009

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