NYSE$BTU

Peabody Energy Corporation · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Peabody Energy reported strong operational results with better-than-expected production and effective cost management in Q3 2023. The company progressed on strengthening its metallurgical platform with advancements at North Goonyella and an agreement to acquire an adjacent coal deposit.

Peabody Energy reported a net income attributable to common stockholders of $119.9 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2023. The company's Adjusted EBITDA was $270.0 million. Peabody exceeded anticipated PRB volumes by 8 percent and reported lower than anticipated costs per ton in three of four operating segments.

  • Reported third quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $270 million and $989 million of Cash and Cash Equivalents at September 30, 2023.
  • Reported higher production levels at three of four operating segments compared to prior quarter.
  • Exceeded anticipated PRB volumes by 8 percent, shipping ~23 million tons in the quarter.
  • Reached an agreement to acquire a large portion of the Wards Well coal deposit, an underground premium hard coking coal resource immediately adjacent to our existing North Goonyella mine

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.08B

Previous: $1.34B-19.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.82

Previous: $2.34-65.0%
Seaborne Thermal Revenue/Ton

$71.38

Previous: $95.54-25.3%
Seaborne Metallurgical Revenue/Ton

$162.02

Previous: $179.77-9.9%
PRB Revenue/Ton

$13.79

Previous: $12.99+6.2%
Other U.S. Thermal Revenue/Ton

$53.89

Previous: $54.58-1.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$67.8M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$120M

Previous: $375M-68.0%
Net Income

$120M

Previous: $375M-68.0%
Operating Income

$159M

Previous: $421M-62.2%
Gross Profit

$275M

Previous: $504M-45.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$989M

Previous: $1.35B-27.0%
Total Assets

$5.72B

Previous: $5.43B+5.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.7M

Previous: $1.2M+41.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Peabody Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.08B

Q3 2023-19.6%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Peabody Energy · $1.08B total across 5 segments · Q3 2023

  • Powder River Basin
    $313M+7.7%
  • Seaborne Thermal
    $297M-15.8%
  • Seaborne Metallurgical
    $247M-20.5%
  • Other U.S. Thermal
    $228M-12.7%
  • Corporate and Other
    -$6.7M-105.3%

Forward guidance

Peabody provided an outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023 regarding seaborne thermal and metallurgical volumes and costs, as well as U.S. Thermal (PRB and Other U.S. Thermal) volume, average price, and costs.

Tailwinds

  • Seaborne thermal volumes are expected to be 4.2 million tons, including 2.8 million export tons.
  • 0.5 million export tons are priced at $161 per ton.
  • Seaborne metallurgical volumes are expected to be 2.2 million tons.
  • 0.2 million tons are priced at $164 per ton.
  • PRB volume is expected to be approximately 21 million tons at an average price of $13.30 per ton and costs of approximately $11.55 per ton.

Headwinds

  • Approximately 1.5 million tons of high ash product and 0.8 million tons of Newcastle product are unpriced for seaborne thermal.
  • Seaborne thermal costs are expected to be $45-$50 per ton for the quarter.
  • The remaining unpriced seaborne metallurgical volumes are expected to achieve 65 to 70 percent of the premium hard coking coal price index.
  • Seaborne metallurgical costs are expected to be $110-$120 per ton for the quarter.
  • Other U.S. Thermal volume is expected to be approximately 4.1 million tons at an average price of $51.40 per ton and costs of approximately $43-$44 per ton.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

14 / 36 earnings

Positive

+25.2%

Q4 2021

Best reaction

-29.0%

Q3 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.8%-11.0%+17.7%
Q4 2025-2.2%+2.7%-8.3%
Q3 2025-4.7%+8.9%+0.9%
Q1 2025+9.2%+5.6%-2.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-3.8%-30.6%
Q3 2024+7.2%+10.2%-3.4%
Q2 2024-0.8%-3.7%+5.4%
Q1 2024+2.8%+2.3%+15.6%
Q4 2023-2.5%-4.4%+4.7%
Q3 2023+0.6%-4.4%-2.8%
Q2 2023-3.7%-0.7%-4.5%
Q1 2023+2.6%-0.3%-20.3%
Q4 2022+12.1%+7.3%-11.2%
Q3 2022+16.2%+27.5%+36.0%
Q2 2022-8.0%-14.7%+21.8%
Q1 2022-14.6%-18.8%-5.2%
Q4 2021+25.2%+26.6%+69.4%
Q3 2021-8.9%-11.8%-19.5%
Q2 2021+8.7%+5.8%+44.8%
Q1 2021-13.8%-3.3%+54.5%
Q4 2020-17.9%-14.3%-7.6%
Q3 2020-29.0%-10.3%+26.5%
Q2 2020-14.3%-10.5%-14.3%
Q1 2020+13.0%+8.0%+5.0%
Q4 2019+20.8%+12.1%-37.2%
Q3 2019-26.2%-36.3%-39.5%
Q2 2019-15.9%-18.4%-16.7%
Q1 2019-4.1%+1.5%-18.2%
Q4 2018-13.8%-17.3%-14.5%
Q3 2018+4.6%+1.7%-8.1%
Q2 2018-0.5%+1.1%-2.9%
Q1 2018-3.1%-3.0%+9.1%
Q4 2017-7.2%-4.4%-5.0%
Q3 2017+3.0%+1.9%+8.9%
Q2 2017+7.7%+0.6%+3.4%
Q1 2017-4.4%-0.4%-6.7%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2007
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q3 2008
Q2 2008
Q2 2009

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