NASDAQ$BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation · Q4 2022 earnings
Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Reported fourth quarter and full year results with record EV sales and backlog, positioning for a strong recovery in fiscal 2023.
Blue Bird reported Q4 2022 results with net sales of $257.7 million, a net loss of $23.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $(16.4) million. The company sold 2,016 buses during the quarter and has a robust backlog of over $600 million and 5,000+ units. They are positioned for a strong recovery in fiscal 2023.
- Net sales increased by 34.1% to $257.7 million compared to the prior year period.
- Net loss increased to $23.1 million compared to the same period last year.
- Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $(16.4) million compared to the fourth quarter last year.
- The company saw significant growth in electric school bus bookings, up 85%.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly
$258M
Revenue by segment
Blue Bird · $65.4M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022
- Bus Sales$60.6M—92.7%
- Parts Sales$4.8M—7.3%
Forward guidance
Blue Bird provided full year fiscal 2023 guidance of Net Revenue of $900-1,000 million, Adj. EBITDA of $35-45 million and Adj. Free Cash Flow of $0-10 million. The company reconfirmed their long term outlook of profitable growth towards $2 billion in revenues and Adjusted EBITDA margins of 12%, or $250 million.
Tailwinds
- Expect to return to historical profitability levels during FY23.
- Anticipate increasing levels of revenues and performance each quarter.
- Operational metrics are starting to improve.
- Turnaround is working.
- Expect order backlog to grow significantly over the next several months as orders are placed with the EPA’s 2022 Clean School Bus Rebate Program.
Headwinds
- FY2022 was an incredibly difficult year.
- Experienced a supplier allocation that cut volumes approximately in half in Q1.
- Unprecedented inflation and steel prices almost tripled during Q2.
- Fixed pricing on old backlog during the first half of the year.
- Unsuccessful production increase in Q3 and inventory accumulation.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022
+1.6%
Avg return
Earnings day
+2.2%
Avg return
5 days after
+4.5%
Avg return
30 days after
55%
27 / 49 earnings
Positive
+35.7%
Q2 2023
Best reaction
-19.4%
Q4 2022
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +8.9% | +6.4% | +7.1% | |
| Q1 2026 | +11.8% | +14.2% | +10.2% | |
| Q4 2025 | -5.4% | -4.8% | -5.5% | |
| Q2 2025 | +2.0% | +7.1% | +9.0% | |
| Q1 2025 | +4.2% | +3.2% | -5.1% | |
| Q4 2024 | -1.2% | -1.3% | -5.7% | |
| Q3 2024 | +0.2% | -2.0% | -4.5% | |
| Q2 2024 | +25.9% | +31.4% | +51.8% | |
| Q1 2024 | -2.7% | -0.5% | +3.9% | |
| Q4 2023 | +11.6% | +15.3% | +16.1% | |
| Q3 2023 | -5.0% | -0.2% | +2.3% | |
| Q2 2023 | +35.7% | +13.4% | +10.3% | |
| Q1 2023 | +33.2% | +51.4% | +53.1% | |
| Q4 2022 | -19.4% | -19.8% | +13.7% | |
| Q3 2022 | -0.3% | +8.9% | -5.2% | |
| Q2 2022 | -7.0% | -9.2% | -18.7% | |
| Q1 2022 | +16.1% | +12.4% | +34.9% | |
| Q4 2021 | -5.3% | -8.4% | -3.1% | |
| Q3 2021 | -10.5% | -9.3% | -24.3% | |
| Q2 2021 | -1.4% | +1.2% | -5.7% | |
| Q1 2021 | -18.4% | -20.2% | +9.4% | |
| Q4 2020 | +0.1% | +7.5% | +33.8% | |
| Q3 2020 | -14.4% | -14.9% | -15.6% | |
| Q2 2020 | +9.2% | +15.1% | +31.6% | |
| Q1 2020 | -5.9% | -6.7% | -34.3% | |
| Q4 2019 | +1.3% | +3.7% | +17.9% | |
| Q3 2019 | +2.0% | -9.1% | -5.7% | |
| Q2 2019 | +9.9% | +8.5% | +9.9% | |
| Q1 2019 | -4.9% | -10.1% | -15.7% | |
| Q4 2018 | -0.1% | -6.1% | +1.8% | |
| Q3 2018 | +6.3% | +1.2% | +7.2% | |
| Q2 2018 | -7.4% | -12.7% | -19.3% | |
| Q1 2018 | +15.9% | +17.9% | +20.9% | |
| Q4 2017 | -7.0% | -6.2% | -2.3% | |
| Q3 2017 | +1.7% | +1.1% | +3.4% | |
| Q2 2017 | -1.3% | -1.1% | -5.3% | |
| Q1 2017 | +2.4% | +2.7% | +0.0% | |
| Q4 2016 | +1.2% | -3.5% | -7.0% | |
| Q3 2016 | -1.6% | -1.1% | -1.2% | |
| Q2 2016 | +2.2% | +11.1% | +16.1% | |
| Q1 2016 | -5.9% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | +0.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -2.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +1.4% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | +0.8% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | +0.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +0.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -0.6% | — | — |
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