NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Blue Bird's Q3 2020 earnings were significantly impacted by COVID-19, but the company focused on margin growth.

Blue Bird's Q3 2020 results were significantly impacted by COVID-19, with net sales down 39% year-over-year to $189.2 million. Despite these challenges, the average bus selling price increased by 9%. The company reported a GAAP net income of $1.3 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $12.5 million.

  • Net sales decreased by 39% to $189.2 million due to COVID-19 impacts.
  • Average selling price per bus increased by 9% due to pricing and a richer mix of higher-priced vehicles.
  • GAAP net income was $1.3 million, a decrease of $13.3 million from the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $12.5 million, down $16.6 million from the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$189M

Previous: $309M-38.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.16

Previous: $0.69-76.8%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

6.6%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$1.29M

Previous: $14.6M-91.2%
Net Income

$1.29M

Previous: $14.6M-91.2%
Operating Income

$3.29M

Previous: $20.8M-84.2%
Gross Profit

$21.1M

Previous: $41.8M-49.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$12.5M

Previous: $29.1M-56.9%
Total Assets

$390M

Previous: $408M-4.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.81M

Previous: $1.1M+64.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$189M

Q3 2020-38.7%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $288M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Bus Sales
    $283M+16407779.5%
  • Parts Sales
    $4.6M

Forward guidance

The company is focused on achieving an EBITDA margin target of at least 10% in the near-term and is taking restructuring actions to navigate the challenges posed by COVID-19.

Tailwinds

  • Successfully moved to a single shift production schedule to drive efficiency and quality improvement.
  • Average selling price per bus increased by more than $7,000, or 9%, over last year's third quarter.
  • Alternative-fuel results represent a 48% mix of year-to-date sales and backlog.
  • The company is the market share leader in propane, gasoline and electric-powered buses.
  • Transformational Initiatives improved profits by $2.3 million in the quarter.

Headwinds

  • School shutdowns and shelter-in-place mandates delayed orders through the third quarter.
  • Continued supplier disruptions impacted efficiencies throughout the quarter.
  • Orders have continued to be slow as schools deliberate online versus in-classroom teaching this Fall.
  • Lower volumes and manufacturing disruptions due to COVID-19 impacted gross profit margin.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased due to lower volume and production inefficiencies due to COVID-19.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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