NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Turnaround completed, guidance beat and fiscal year 2023 third quarter results were reported.

Blue Bird reported strong Q3 2023 results, with a 43% increase in net sales to $294.3 million and a net income of $9.4 million, a $15.8 million increase. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $19.2 million to $28.0 million, driven by higher unit sales and pricing actions. The company raised its full-year financial guidance and anticipates sustained profitable growth.

  • Net sales increased by 43% to $294.3 million.
  • GAAP net income increased by $15.8 million to $9.4 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by $19.2 million to $28.0 million.
  • EV bookings were up nearly 150% from last year’s third quarter

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$294M

Previous: $206M+42.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.44

Previous: -$0.09+588.9%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

9.5%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$9.36M

Previous: -$6.44M+245.4%
Net Income

$9.36M

Previous: -$6.44M+245.4%
Operating Income

$19.4M

Previous: $1.09M+1685.1%
Gross Profit

$45.8M

Previous: $21.6M+111.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$50.5M

Previous: $26.5M+90.5%
Total Assets

$390M

Previous: $463M-15.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$941K

Previous: $667K+41.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$294M

Q3 2023+42.8%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $288M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Bus Sales
    $283M+16407779.5%
  • Parts Sales
    $4.6M

Forward guidance

Blue Bird raised full year fiscal 2023 guidance to Net Revenue of just over $1.1 Billion, Adj. EBITDA of $70-76 million and Adj. Free Cash Flow of $70-80 million. Additionally, the company reconfirmed long-term outlook of profitable growth towards $2 billion in revenues and Adjusted EBITDA margins of 12%, or $250 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net Revenue of just over $1.1 Billion
  • Adj. EBITDA of $70-76 million
  • Adj. Free Cash Flow of $70-80 million
  • Profitable growth towards $2 billion in revenues
  • Adjusted EBITDA margins of 12%, or $250 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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