NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q1 2025 earnings

Q1 2025 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

Blue Bird reported its fiscal 2025 first quarter results, beating guidance and reaffirming its full-year outlook.

Blue Bird reported strong fiscal first quarter 2025 results, with net sales of $313.9 million and GAAP net income of $28.7 million. The company exceeded its guidance, driven by strong demand for school buses and improved operational performance, particularly in its base internal combustion engine (ICE) business, while also making progress in electric bus deliveries.

  • Net Sales for Q1 fiscal 2025 were $313.9 million, a slight decrease of 1.2% from the prior year, primarily due to product mix changes.
  • GAAP Net Income increased to $28.7 million, up $2.6 million from the prior year, largely due to emission credits sold.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $45.8 million, with a strong 14.6% margin, demonstrating robust earnings power from the base business.
  • The company reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA at $200 million and Net Revenue at $1.4-1.5 billion, anticipating sustained profitable growth.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$314M

Previous: $318M-1.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.92

Previous: $0.81+13.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$4.59M

Previous: -$2.9M-58.2%
Free Cash Flow

$21.8M

Previous: $26.2M-16.6%
Net Income

$28.7M

Previous: $26.2M+9.8%
Operating Income

$33M

Previous: $38M-12.9%
Gross Profit

$60.3M

Previous: $63.6M-5.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$314M

Q1 2025-1.2%vs Q1 2024
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $288M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Bus Sales
    $283M+16407779.5%
  • Parts Sales
    $4.6M

Forward guidance

Blue Bird reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2025 financial guidance, projecting Net Revenue between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion, Adjusted EBITDA between $185 million and $215 million, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow between $40 million and $60 million. The company also confirmed its long-term profit outlook for an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 15%+ on approximately $2 billion in revenues.

Tailwinds

  • Reaffirmed full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $200 million, which would be an all-time full-year record.
  • Reaffirmed full-year 2025 Net Revenue guidance of $1.4-1.5 billion.
  • Reaffirmed full-year 2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance of $40-60 million.
  • Confirmed long-term profit outlook towards an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 15%+ on ~$2 billion in revenues.
  • Strong Q1 performance provides confidence in achieving full-year targets.

Headwinds

  • No specific negative forward guidance points were highlighted in the provided text.
  • Potential impact of product mix changes on revenue per unit.
  • Ongoing inflationary pressures could affect costs.
  • Market acceptance of new products, especially EVs, remains a factor.
  • Potential for volatility in funding sources for bus purchases.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2025

Historical avgQ1 2025

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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