NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter results, demonstrating progress in its recovery plan despite a challenging environment and focusing on electric vehicle growth.

Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2022 third quarter results, with net sales of $206.1 million and a GAAP net loss of $6.4 million. The company's recovery plan is yielding results, driven by pricing actions and cost control measures, despite continued inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions. Blue Bird is focused on expanding its leadership in zero- and low-emission school buses.

  • Net sales reached $206.1 million, with a GAAP net loss of $6.4 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $8.8 million, with 1,726 buses sold.
  • Margin expansion was achieved as pricing actions took hold.
  • The company has a strong backlog of $700 million and 6,300 units, including over 380 electric Type C & D buses.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$206M

Previous: $197M+4.8%
EPS (adj)

-$0.09

Previous: $0.19-147.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$6.44M

Previous: $4.33M-248.5%
Net Income

-$6.44M

Previous: $4.33M-248.5%
Operating Income

$1.09M

Previous: $8.09M-86.5%
Gross Profit

$21.6M

Previous: $26.2M-17.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$26.5M

Previous: $11.2M+136.2%
Total Assets

$463M

Previous: $363M+27.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$667K

Previous: $328K+103.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$206M

Q3 2022+4.8%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $1.73K total across 1 segment · Q3 2022

  • Bus Sales
    $1.73K

Forward guidance

Blue Bird revised its fiscal 2022 guidance due to supply chain disruptions and a semiconductor part shortage affecting EV production. The company now expects net revenue of $750-800 million, adjusted EBITDA of $5-15 million, and adjusted free cash flow of $(45)-(35) million.

Tailwinds

  • Margins are on track and improving.
  • Aggressive cost control measures are in place.
  • Strong improvement in results in the third quarter, in-line-with previous plan.
  • New bus orders reflected a 25% price increase year over year.
  • Partnership with dealer network to recover substantial pricing on backlog units.

Headwinds

  • Production levels are still constrained by supply chain disruptions.
  • A recent temporary but critical supply shortage is limiting EV production.
  • Supply-constraint lower volumes are expected.
  • EV semiconductor part shortage is impacting production.
  • Revised guidance for fiscal 2022 includes lower net revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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