NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record fiscal year results, beating guidance and raised fiscal year 2025 guidance and long-term outlook.

Blue Bird reported a strong Q4 2024 with a 15.6% increase in net sales to $350.2 million and net income of $24.7 million. The company's success was driven by increased bus sales and parts sales, reflecting strong market demand and effective business transformation initiatives. Blue Bird also raised its fiscal year 2025 guidance, indicating continued confidence in sustained profitable growth.

  • Net sales increased by 15.6% to $350.2 million compared to the same quarter last year.
  • Net income rose to $24.7 million, an increase of $6.0 million year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $41.3 million, up by $0.6 million from the previous year.
  • The company booked 2,466 units, a 16.5% increase from the same period in fiscal 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$350M

Previous: $303M+15.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.77

Previous: $0.66+16.7%
Bus Unit Sales

2.5K

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA

$41.3M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

11.8%

No prior period
Adjusted Net Income

$25.8M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$5.13M

Previous: -$2.13M-140.7%
Net Income

$24.7M

Previous: $18.6M+32.8%
Operating Income

$25.6M

Previous: $29.2M-12.3%
Gross Profit

$59.6M

Previous: $50M+19.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.59M

Previous: $1.94M-18.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$350M

Q4 2024+15.6%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 9 of 14 quarters(64%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $288M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Bus Sales
    $283M+16407779.5%
  • Parts Sales
    $4.6M

Forward guidance

Blue Bird updated its fiscal 2025 full-year guidance for Net Revenue to $1.4 - $1.5 Billion, Adjusted EBITDA to $190-210 million (13.6% - 14.0% margin) and Adjusted Free Cash Flow to $40-60 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net Revenue to $1.4 - $1.5 Billion
  • Adj. EBITDA to $190-210 million
  • Adj. EBITDA margin of 13.6% - 14.0%
  • Adj. Free Cash Flow to $40-60 million
  • Long-term profit outlook towards an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 15%+ on ~$2 billion in Revenue.

Headwinds

  • Includes ~$50 million of extraordinary CAPEX related to expansion of our manufacturing footprint.
  • Economic conditions (including tariffs) that could affect fuel costs, commodity costs, industry size and financial conditions of our dealers and suppliers
  • Labor or other constraints on the Company’s ability to maintain a competitive cost structure
  • Volatility in the tax base and other funding sources that support the purchase of buses by our end customers
  • Lower or higher than anticipated market acceptance for our products

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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