NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Blue Bird's Q4 2020 performance was marked by net sales decrease and COVID-19 impact, offset by cost reductions and pricing strategies.

Blue Bird Corporation reported a decrease in net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020, alongside a slight increase in net income compared to the same period last year. The company faced lower volumes and manufacturing disruptions due to COVID-19, which were partially offset by bus pricing and cost reduction initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA saw a decrease due to the aforementioned challenges.

  • Net sales decreased by 18.1% to $281.4 million due to lower bus unit sales.
  • Net income increased slightly to $11.9 million, up from $11.6 million in the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $21.9 million due to lower volume and production inefficiencies.
  • Gross profit margin declined by 3.1 points to 10.5% due to COVID-19 impacts.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$281M

Previous: $344M-18.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.49

Previous: $0.74-33.8%
Net Income

$11.9M

Previous: $11.6M+3.0%
Operating Income

$13.6M

Previous: $18.2M-25.3%
Gross Profit

$29.6M

Previous: $46.6M-36.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$44.5M

Previous: $71M-37.3%
Total Assets

$317M

Previous: $365M-13.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$36K

Previous: $1.13M-96.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$281M

Q4 2020-18.1%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $288M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Bus Sales
    $283M+16407779.5%
  • Parts Sales
    $4.6M

Forward guidance

Blue Bird anticipates uncertainty around the timing of schools returning to normalcy in FY2021, but they are providing a wide range for guidance metrics, which they expect to narrow as the pandemic's control becomes clearer. They announced initial net revenue guidance of $750M-975M, with Adj. EBITDA between $40M-$65M and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $(5)-$20M.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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