NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Blue Bird reported a challenging second quarter due to supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, but focused on electric vehicle growth and process improvement.

Blue Bird's Q2 2022 results were impacted by supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, leading to a GAAP net loss of $12.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $(10.7) million. Net sales increased to $207.7 million, driven by higher bus unit sales. The company is focused on electric vehicle growth and has a record order backlog.

  • Net sales increased by 26.1% year-over-year to $207.7 million.
  • GAAP net loss was $12.1 million, $11.5 million higher than the same period last year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $(10.7) million, $18.2 million below prior year level.
  • Order backlog remains strong at a record 6,600 buses, worth approximately $700 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$208M

Previous: $165M+26.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.31

Previous: $0.05-720.0%
Bus Unit Sales

1.9K

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$12.1M

Previous: -$619K-1862.4%
Net Income

-$12.1M

Previous: -$619K-1862.4%
Operating Income

-$16.7M

Previous: $1.13M-1575.4%
Gross Profit

$3.16M

Previous: $18.5M-82.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$14.9M

Previous: $18.7M-20.6%
Total Assets

$398M

Previous: $326M+22.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$813K

Previous: $871K-6.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$208M

Q2 2022+26.1%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $167M total across 2 segments · Q2 2022

  • Bus Sales
    $163M
  • Parts Sales
    $4.48M

Forward guidance

Blue Bird revised its fiscal year 2022 guidance due to continued supply chain disruptions, now expecting net revenue of $800-900 million, adjusted EBITDA of $20-30 million, and adjusted free cash flow of $15-25 million.

Tailwinds

  • Expect to see gradual relief beginning in fiscal Q4 as fully-priced orders begin to be delivered.
  • Implemented price increases totaling more than 25% over the past 10 months.
  • Anticipate scaling up electric vehicle production capacity to 4,000 vehicles a year by 2024 to meet increasing demand.
  • Focused on capitalizing on significant growth opportunities in electric commercial chassis.
  • Benefiting from the Clean School Bus Rebate Program.

Headwinds

  • The previously anticipated recovery in the supply base in the second half of the fiscal year has been delayed.
  • Supply disruptions due to Russia’s war in Ukraine and COVID-related lockdowns in China.
  • Continued rise in raw material, freight, and labor costs.
  • Shortages on a number of key components.
  • Unclear how the supply disruptions will trend.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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