NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Blue Bird's first quarter 2020 results were announced, featuring an improvement in GAAP net loss and growth in Adjusted EBITDA.

Blue Bird Corporation reported a GAAP net loss of $0.4 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2020, which is an improvement of $0.8 million compared to the previous year. The company's Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $8.0 million, an increase of $0.8 million year-over-year. The company reaffirms its FY2020 revenue guidance at $1,020 - $1,050 million and Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $90 - $95 million.

  • GAAP net loss improved by $0.8 million to $0.4 million.
  • GAAP Diluted EPS improved by 3 cents to a loss of 2 cents.
  • Adjusted EBITDA reached $8.0 million, up $0.8 million year-over-year.
  • FY2020 guidance was reaffirmed.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$153M

Previous: $155M-1.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.07

Previous: $0.05+40.0%
Bus Unit Sales

1.5K

Previous: 1.6K-8.8%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

5.2%

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$403K

Previous: -$1.22M+67.0%
Net Income

-$403K

Previous: -$1.22M+67.0%
Operating Income

$805K

Previous: $1.84M-56.2%
Gross Profit

$21.3M

Previous: $19.1M+11.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$7.7M

Previous: $18.8M-59.1%
Total Assets

$361M

Previous: $298M+21.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.09M

Previous: $852K+28.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$153M

Q1 2020-1.1%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $288M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Bus Sales
    $283M+16407779.5%
  • Parts Sales
    $4.6M

Forward guidance

Blue Bird reaffirms its net revenue and profit outlook for FY2020, with full-year revenue guidance at $1,020- $1,050 million and Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $90 - $95 million. Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance at $30 - $35 million.

Tailwinds

  • Full-year revenue guidance at $1,020 - $1,050 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $90 - $95 million.
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance at $30 - $35 million.
  • Continued growth in alternative-fueled bus sales.
  • Focus on driving higher revenue.

Headwinds

  • Higher commodity costs.
  • Lower volume.
  • Key investments in production facility through FY2020 to drive productivity and quality.
  • Net sales were $153.2 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2020, a decrease of $1.7 million, or 1.1%, from prior year period.
  • Bus unit sales were 1,460 units for the quarter compared with 1,600 units for the same period last year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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