NASDAQ$BLBD

Blue Bird Corporation · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported first quarter results with focus on margin expansion, EV growth, and industry recovery.

Blue Bird reported a decrease in net sales to $130.4 million and a GAAP net loss of $1.6 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2021. The company is focused on improving operational performance and capitalizing on market recovery.

  • Net sales reached $130.4 million with a GAAP net loss of $1.6 million.
  • Average selling price per bus increased by 1.7%.
  • Electric bus sales and backlog exceeded 100 units.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $5.8 million, impacted by lower unit sales due to the pandemic.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$130M

Previous: $153M-14.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.06

Previous: $0.07-185.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.61M

Previous: -$403K-300.5%
Net Income

-$1.61M

Previous: -$403K-300.5%
Operating Income

-$222K

Previous: $805K-127.6%
Gross Profit

$14.5M

Previous: $21.3M-32.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$23.9M

Previous: $7.7M+210.6%
Total Assets

$308M

Previous: $361M-14.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$724K

Previous: $1.09M-33.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Blue Bird · Revenue · Quarterly

$130M

Q1 2021-14.9%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 8 of 16 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Blue Bird · $288M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Bus Sales
    $283M+16407779.5%
  • Parts Sales
    $4.6M

Forward guidance

Blue Bird reaffirmed its previously provided guidance for net revenue of $750M-975M, Adj. EBITDA between $40M-$65M and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $(5)-$20M.

Tailwinds

  • Schools will accelerate reopening for in-classroom teaching as we head toward the next school year
  • Improving our underlying business structure that is key to achieving our near-term EBITDA margin target of at least 10%
  • Move to a single shift production schedule late in the third quarter of 2020 drove efficiency and quality improvements through the first quarter
  • We grew our alternative-powered bus sales mix again in the first quarter, achieving a record 46% mix of total unit sales compared with 39% last year
  • An industry rebound is in sight

Headwinds

  • Challenging environment caused by the pandemic which has resulted in many schools operating in a virtual or hybrid mode.
  • There is a lot of uncertainty around timing of a return-to-normalcy for schools
  • Net sales were $130.4 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2021, a decrease of $22.8 million, or 14.9%, from prior year period.
  • First quarter gross profit of $14.5 million represented a decrease of $6.8 million from the first quarter of last year. Gross profit margin declined 2.8 points to 11.1%.
  • Net loss was $1.6 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2021, a profit reduction of $1.2 million compared with the same period last year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

27 / 49 earnings

Positive

+35.7%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-19.4%

Q4 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+8.9%+6.4%+7.1%
Q1 2026+11.8%+14.2%+10.2%
Q4 2025-5.4%-4.8%-5.5%
Q2 2025+2.0%+7.1%+9.0%
Q1 2025+4.2%+3.2%-5.1%
Q4 2024-1.2%-1.3%-5.7%
Q3 2024+0.2%-2.0%-4.5%
Q2 2024+25.9%+31.4%+51.8%
Q1 2024-2.7%-0.5%+3.9%
Q4 2023+11.6%+15.3%+16.1%
Q3 2023-5.0%-0.2%+2.3%
Q2 2023+35.7%+13.4%+10.3%
Q1 2023+33.2%+51.4%+53.1%
Q4 2022-19.4%-19.8%+13.7%
Q3 2022-0.3%+8.9%-5.2%
Q2 2022-7.0%-9.2%-18.7%
Q1 2022+16.1%+12.4%+34.9%
Q4 2021-5.3%-8.4%-3.1%
Q3 2021-10.5%-9.3%-24.3%
Q2 2021-1.4%+1.2%-5.7%
Q1 2021-18.4%-20.2%+9.4%
Q4 2020+0.1%+7.5%+33.8%
Q3 2020-14.4%-14.9%-15.6%
Q2 2020+9.2%+15.1%+31.6%
Q1 2020-5.9%-6.7%-34.3%
Q4 2019+1.3%+3.7%+17.9%
Q3 2019+2.0%-9.1%-5.7%
Q2 2019+9.9%+8.5%+9.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%-10.1%-15.7%
Q4 2018-0.1%-6.1%+1.8%
Q3 2018+6.3%+1.2%+7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%-12.7%-19.3%
Q1 2018+15.9%+17.9%+20.9%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.2%-2.3%
Q3 2017+1.7%+1.1%+3.4%
Q2 2017-1.3%-1.1%-5.3%
Q1 2017+2.4%+2.7%+0.0%
Q4 2016+1.2%-3.5%-7.0%
Q3 2016-1.6%-1.1%-1.2%
Q2 2016+2.2%+11.1%+16.1%
Q1 2016-5.9%
Q4 2013+0.4%
Q4 2015+0.4%
Q3 2015-2.0%
Q2 2015+1.4%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q1 2015+0.8%
Q4 2014+0.5%
Q2 2014-0.6%

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