NYSE$VVV

Valvoline Inc. · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Valvoline's Q4 2024 financial results were reported, showcasing growth in sales and earnings.

Valvoline Inc. reported a 12% increase in sales from continuing operations to $436 million, driven by a 5.4% system-wide same-store sales growth. Reported income from continuing operations increased by 19% to $89 million, with EPS up by 26% to $0.68. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 14% to $124 million, and adjusted EPS increased by 18% to $0.46.

  • Sales from continuing operations grew by 12% to $436 million.
  • System-wide same-store sales increased by 5.4%.
  • Reported income from continuing operations rose by 19% to $89 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% to $124 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$436M

Previous: $390M+11.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.46

Previous: $0.39+17.9%
Adjusted EBITDA

$124M

No prior period
System-wide store sales

$827M

No prior period
System-wide SSS growth

6.0%

No prior period
System-wide stores

2.0K

No prior period
Company-operated stores

950

Previous: 876+8.4%
Franchised stores

1.1K

Previous: 976+8.6%
Capital Expenditures

-$71.4M

Previous: $54.6M-230.8%
Net Income

$92.3M

Previous: $45.2M+104.2%
Operating Income

$135M

Previous: $70.2M+91.7%
Gross Profit

$170M

Previous: $148M+14.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.6M

Previous: $3.4M-23.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly

$436M

Q4 2024+11.7%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Valvoline anticipates continued growth in fiscal year 2025, driven by same-store sales growth and network expansion. Taking into account the refranchising transactions, the company expects sales to grow by 10% to 14%, reaching $1.67 billion to $1.73 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to be between $450 million and $470 million.

Tailwinds

  • Same-store sales growth of 5.0% to 7.0%.
  • Network growth of 160 to 185 stores.
  • Top line sales to grow by 10% to 14% to $1.67 billion to $1.73 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $450 million to $470 million.
  • Resilient and differentiated business model.

Headwinds

  • Refranchising transactions represented about $100 million of revenue and $24 million of adjusted EBITDA in fiscal year 2024.
  • Share repurchases subject to market conditions.
  • Outlook for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS are non-GAAP financial measures that are expected to be impacted by items affecting comparability.
  • Valvoline is unable to reconcile these forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures estimated for fiscal 2025 without unreasonable efforts.
  • A material weakness in internal control over financial reporting continued to exist as of September 30, 2024.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

20 / 42 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+4.8%-4.1%+4.6%
Q1 2026+8.1%+11.1%+5.9%
Q4 2025-2.6%-3.3%-6.0%
Q2 2025-1.8%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+7.4%+8.8%-4.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.9%-14.3%
Q3 2024-7.5%-9.3%-8.4%
Q2 2024-5.1%-5.4%-7.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+10.4%+21.1%
Q4 2023+8.3%+14.6%+16.8%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.4%-6.4%
Q2 2023+12.3%+12.0%+8.3%
Q1 2023-4.4%-3.1%-4.1%
Q4 2022-0.1%+1.2%-3.6%
Q3 2022-7.5%-5.9%-6.6%
Q2 2022-8.4%-1.2%+14.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%-1.4%-9.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-2.0%-1.9%
Q3 2021-0.7%-2.9%-2.2%
Q2 2021+7.9%+9.1%+14.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-0.2%+4.1%
Q4 2020+5.6%+8.8%+21.2%
Q3 2020+1.9%+5.9%+0.6%
Q2 2020+0.5%-0.3%+17.8%
Q1 2020+3.9%+8.0%-7.3%
Q4 2019+4.4%+7.2%+1.8%
Q3 2019+6.7%+7.1%+11.4%
Q2 2019-6.9%-2.7%-5.7%
Q1 2019-21.2%-18.0%-18.6%
Q4 2018-6.6%-1.4%+1.1%
Q3 2018-7.0%-4.6%-4.7%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018-2.8%-0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2015-2.0%-1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2017-0.4%-3.0%+3.3%
Q3 2016+0.0%-0.8%-2.0%
Q3 2017+0.6%-1.5%-6.1%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.7%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.3%-2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%-0.2%-2.4%
Q1 2017+5.6%+3.3%+1.3%
Q4 2016-4.8%-9.1%-4.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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