NYSE$VVV

Valvoline Inc. · Q1 2022 earnings

Q1 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Valvoline's first quarter results were reported, with sales increasing and earnings per share showing growth.

Valvoline reported a 31% increase in sales to $858 million. Net income remained flat at $87 million, while adjusted EPS increased by 12% to $0.48. The company returned $54 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

  • Net income of $87 million was flat and EPS of $0.48 increased 2%.
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.48 increased 12% and adjusted EBITDA of $156 million improved 5%.
  • Sales grew 31% to $858 million.
  • Returned $54 million in cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$858M

Previous: $653M+31.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.48

Previous: $0.41+17.1%
Company-operated stores

738

No prior period
Franchised stores

897

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$35M

Previous: -$35M+0.0%
Free Cash Flow

$52M

Previous: $52M+0.0%
Net Income

$87M

Previous: $87M+0.0%
Operating Income

$121M

Previous: $124M-2.4%
Gross Profit

$244M

Previous: $228M+7.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$152M

Previous: $527M-71.2%
Total Assets

$3.18B

Previous: $3.16B+0.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.2M

Previous: $3M+6.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Valvoline · Revenue · Quarterly

$858M

Q1 2022+31.4%vs Q1 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Valvoline reaffirmed its guidance for fiscal year 2022, expecting exceptional topline growth and solid improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Same-store sales are expected to moderate due to strong prior-year comps.

Tailwinds

  • Reaffirming sales growth of 19-21%.
  • Maintaining Retail Services system-wide store additions of 110-130.
  • Keeping Retail Services system-wide SSS growth at 9-12%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA remains at $675-$700 million.
  • Free cash flow stays at $260-$300 million.

Headwinds

  • Expect same-store sales to moderate as we compare against strong comps in the prior year.
  • Navigating short-term supply-chain challenges.
  • Adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be 24-25%.
  • Capital expenditures are projected to be $180-$200 million.
  • Valvoline is unable to reconcile these forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures estimated for fiscal 2022 without unreasonable efforts.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2022

Historical avgQ1 2022

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.6%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

20 / 42 earnings

Positive

+12.3%

Q2 2023

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+4.8%-4.1%+4.6%
Q1 2026+8.1%+11.1%+5.9%
Q4 2025-2.6%-3.3%-6.0%
Q2 2025-1.8%+0.9%+6.0%
Q1 2025+7.4%+8.8%-4.6%
Q4 2024-9.1%-8.9%-14.3%
Q3 2024-7.5%-9.3%-8.4%
Q2 2024-5.1%-5.4%-7.4%
Q1 2024+7.0%+10.4%+21.1%
Q4 2023+8.3%+14.6%+16.8%
Q3 2023-4.8%-5.4%-6.4%
Q2 2023+12.3%+12.0%+8.3%
Q1 2023-4.4%-3.1%-4.1%
Q4 2022-0.1%+1.2%-3.6%
Q3 2022-7.5%-5.9%-6.6%
Q2 2022-8.4%-1.2%+14.1%
Q1 2022+4.1%-1.4%-9.3%
Q4 2021-1.5%-2.0%-1.9%
Q3 2021-0.7%-2.9%-2.2%
Q2 2021+7.9%+9.1%+14.1%
Q1 2021-2.0%-0.2%+4.1%
Q4 2020+5.6%+8.8%+21.2%
Q3 2020+1.9%+5.9%+0.6%
Q2 2020+0.5%-0.3%+17.8%
Q1 2020+3.9%+8.0%-7.3%
Q4 2019+4.4%+7.2%+1.8%
Q3 2019+6.7%+7.1%+11.4%
Q2 2019-6.9%-2.7%-5.7%
Q1 2019-21.2%-18.0%-18.6%
Q4 2018-6.6%-1.4%+1.1%
Q3 2018-7.0%-4.6%-4.7%
Q2 2018+3.4%+6.4%+2.0%
Q1 2018-2.8%-0.8%+0.5%
Q4 2015-2.0%-1.4%-1.6%
Q4 2017-0.4%-3.0%+3.3%
Q3 2016+0.0%-0.8%-2.0%
Q3 2017+0.6%-1.5%-6.1%
Q2 2016+0.1%+0.7%-0.2%
Q2 2017-0.3%-2.5%-3.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%-0.2%-2.4%
Q1 2017+5.6%+3.3%+1.3%
Q4 2016-4.8%-9.1%-4.0%
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015

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